2016 Trump Vs Hitlery: Trump by a nose...maybe


Always correct election forecast model predicts Trump win, 51%-48%

Republican Donald Trump should win the presidency by a slim margin according to a model that has accurately predicted the popular vote since 1988.
Using several standards to make his prediction, Alan Abramowitz’s “Time for Change” model done for the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics “Crystal Ball” shows Trump winning 51.4 percent to 48.6 percent for Hillary Clinton.
He added that the model shows a 66 percent chance of a Trump victory.
“Based on a predicted vote share of 48.6 percent for the incumbent party, these results indicate that Trump should be a clear but not overwhelming favorite to defeat Clinton: There should be about a 66 percent chance of a Republican victory,” Abramowitz added.
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However, in an unusual move, Abramowitz is throwing his own model under the bus and suggesting that Clinton will win because Trump is so different from past presidential candidates and has such high unfavorability ratings that his election forecast basics can’t be trusted.
“Based on the results of other recent presidential elections, however, as well as Trump’s extraordinary unpopularity, it appears very likely that the Republican vote share will fall several points below what would be expected if the GOP had nominated a mainstream candidate and that candidate had run a reasonably competent campaign. Therefore, despite the prediction of the Time for Change model, Clinton should probably be considered a strong favorite to win the 2016 presidential election as suggested by the results of recent national and state polls,” he concluded on the Crystal Ball site.

That is in line with Crystal Ball founder Larry Sabato’s prediction also on the site.
See the two election forecasts here.

Also from the Washington Examiner


That is VERY interesting. I can’t say that I agree with his outcome though. Yes, Trump doesn’t seem to be real popular with a lot of Republicans. All one has to do is read some of the posts here to see that. And yes, Those people may not vote for Trump but the odds are that only a very small minority will vote for Hillary. On the other hand I think they far underestimate how many democrats will vote for Trump. Like I said a while back my neighbor (a hardened democrat) has crossed over & is going to vote for Trump. How may others are there like him? I would also point out that long ago there used to be a conservative branch in the democratic party. Maybe a couple of those people reproduced or maybe they are still alive (they would be older than the hills though). I don’t know.
The big thing is to understand that the democrats are scared shitless of Trump. Lying, cheating, dirty tricks they are doing it all because of that fear. And there will be a lot more of that stuff before this is over. Oh & as far as pole numbers, U-tube is alive with videos about how they are being fixed. Go there & check a few of them out.


Sorry but Trump has the ability to win this election with a reasonable campaign, but he keeps saying stupid stuff that makes him look like he wants to lose. I’ll vote for him no matter what unless he totally loses his mind.

Hillary is the worst major party presidential candidate in history. She is the dishonest, incompetent and corrupt major party candidate in history. If you don’t believe me check out the historical part of this site. I need to write about a couple more candidates, but I am not wrong.