Bad Science Guide

I thought this was an excellent guide for those of us involved in scientific research of one kind or another.

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Here is a link to the PDF of a paper an AGW proponent offered up as proving Global Warming. It’s typical of much of the bad science that’s being pushed these days.
Lovejoy Paper - Anthropological Climate Dynamics

Like most papers from these so-called climate scientists, he’s collecting data, then statistically using it to determine what caused the data. In this case, ‘emission numbers’ causing ‘temp numbers’, then attempting to use the data to hypothesis what caused the temperatures. And because it doesn’t correlate well he’ll use an assumption that there is a lingering effect (LRD long range statistical dependencies) and ‘fat tails’ (another way of saying variations in the readings), to account for a variations they can’t explain, without quantifying or providing a detailed justification for doing so.

Let us look at a telling statement. Quote:

(These conclusions are robust because they take into account two nonclassical statistical features which greatly amplify the probability of extremes - long range statistical dependencies and the fat tails.)

Here he actually states by using non-standard methods, there is a high probability his approach will generate extremes. Not the right data mind you but exaggerated forms of it. A very telling statement.

The title of section two is the “A stochastic approach” which means something can’t be determined except as a matter of probability. How convenient since that means the answer is determined by what is chosen to be included in the numbers.

Stochastic:
1 - Of, relating to, or characterized by conjecture; conjectural.
2 - Involving or containing a random variable or variables.
3 - Stochastic calculus.
4 - Involving chance or probability.

Typically, the way it’s used is to order apparent random data into categories to establish precedence, usually by how often they appear. The fact that he sees the data in that way automatically says they can’t identify causality. As for the data itself, all we have to do is look at the words used in conjunction with it.

multiproxy (9 times)
multiproxies (26 times)
surrogate (11 times)
estimated (17 times)
estimate (44 times)
estimating (6 times)
nonclassical (4 times)
probability (21 times)
scaling (23)
empirically (11 times)
empirical (7 times)
assume (3 times)
assumption (6 times)
assuming (2 times)
stochastic (13 times).

He’s using proxies, surrogates and estimates then scaling them as needed. In the scientific process, the goal is to eliminate the variables so we can identify the controlling factors and causality. Here he’s added in variables by the boatload. These variables aren’t just additive they are multiplied by each other. Effectively, this paper is suggesting a methodology to bolster their failing models, with a cloud of BS.

Some of the data he’ll rely on is from Mauna Loa and Antarctica; where the data from Antarctica is used for the historic base line and Mona Loa for the current readings. Antarctica is not down stream from pollutant sources now or in the past; at least not within the age range of the ice core samples. Mona Loa is in the direct, down stream, path from the output of Asia. The values of ice cores also become more diluted as you go back in time, where the pressure and freezing cause things to intermingle and migrate.

By using these locations, he’s using two different standards. A low diluted reference for the past and an exaggerated one for the present. This approach is not just unscientific but dishonest. This alone invalidates any conclusions he may draw since the data is based on a false premise.

This is not science just propaganda. From the very start science and the scientific method was ignored. The most obvious omission is the lack of a defined set of methodologies for data collection or explanation of why these particular data was used at all except they were selected to prove a point. As quoted from the paper:

(But there is yet another reason for seeking non-GCM approaches: the most convincing demonstration of anthropogenic warming has not yet been made – the statistical comparison of the observed warming during the industrial epoch against the null hypothesis for natural variability.)

Junk Science at it’s best, if you can call it science at all.

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SP: Excellent post! Thanks for the link. I’ll check it out later this weekend. Are you a scientist?

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Retired Engineer with a wide range of experience, including a few years in research and a few more as VP of Engineering for a Pollution and Environmental Engineering company.

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I can tell you are going to be a great addition to this forum, the ability to communicate the tedious with brevity and clarity is a gift that few possess but is more valuable than gold in winning the hearts and minds of citizens to a profitable course.

Rock on!

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I’ve spent a bit of time teaching in the military and corporate world. Many were foreign nationals; mostly Asia, Middle East and a few from Europe. And though I was a math major, I also took journalism and creative writing. I decided early on the ability to communicate might be helpful in any career I might end up in.

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I’ve been a math and science teacher for over 25 years. Teachers rock!

Known a few teachers over the years, not an easy job but it can be rewarding. When I was in high school I was dating the daughter of my algebra teacher. Luckily she likely me, otherwise it could have been awkward.

Most definitely, AND, rapidly becoming a lost art - as can be witnessed on this board daily.
Welcome aboard!!

There are three subjects I think every student should take at least one class in no matter what their major; journalism, creative writing and a class that does debates or a debate club. They are skills every person will find invaluable. There is another course I wish existed but doesn’t which should be taught to every first grader and every teacher, the basics of learning.

69

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I am a classically trained teacher (aka: Socratic method). In my training, I was required to read Dorothy L. Sayer’s book The Lost Tools of Learning. In it, she describes how modern education has failed and why. “Sayer sadly notes that the subject of logic is where the 20th century curriculum shows such a sharp divergence from the medieval syllabus. In short, the study of logic has fallen into disrepute in the modern world, and she says that its neglect is the root cause of nearly all those disquieting questions which she noted in the modern intellectual situation.” (Dr. David Naugle, Critical Thinking Conference, 1994.)

After demolishing the entire public school system, all teacher unions & federations, the dept. of education, NEA, curricula, etc., every school should be run either by businesses or churches/synagogues. Every teacher to be trained classically. Then, and only then, can teachers give what students need to be critical thinkers and logical analysts, A teacher cannot give what he/she does not have.

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[quote=“ClassicalTeacher, post:11, topic:44678”]
I am a classically trained teacher (aka: Socratic method). In my training, I was required to read Dorothy L. Sayer’s book The Lost Tools of Learning. In it, she describes how modern education has failed and why. “Sayer sadly notes that the subject of logic is where the 20th century curriculum shows such a sharp divergence from the medieval syllabus. In short, the study of logic has fallen into disrepute in the modern world, and she says that its neglect is the root cause of nearly all those disquieting questions which she noted in the modern intellectual situation.” (Dr. David Naugle, Critical Thinking Conference, 1994.)

After demolishing the entire public school system, all teacher unions & federations, the dept. of education, NEA, curricula, etc., every school should be run either by businesses or churches/synagogues. Every teacher to be trained classically. Then, and only then, can teachers give what students need to be critical thinkers and logical analysts, A teacher cannot give what he/she does not have.
[/quote] I will agree with you that there needs to be reform, but I don’t think schools should be run by businesses or churches/synagogues, at least not public schools. The reason I’m opposed to businesses or churches/synagogues (or other religious institutions) being in charge of public schools is because it A) denies freedom of religion if the only ‘public’ school is run by a synagogue and someone’s child is Christian, Muslim, or any other religion and B) Businesses would teach only what they think the kids know to work for them, businesses are almost always self serving like that. I even agree that the problem is a dearth of critical thinking and use of logic in schools. Not sure exactly why that is or how it started, but I’ve got one theory. At least part of the problem is with the news media. Any more logic and reason isn’t needed by the news, they don’t try to tell the full story (or even most of it) they appeal to peoples emotions. You see the influence more and more with all sorts of extremist (but not necessarily terrorist) groups. Groups like PETA, extremist Christian groups (Specifically WBC, but there are a few others), feminist extremists, even the Muslim extremists (both those that engage in terrorism and those that don’t), Sharpton and Jackson, and other groups appeal solely to emotion rather than logic. All these groups are able to do so because the news (which is actually a source of ongoing education for most adults, at least for current events) has abandoned logic and telling the full truth long ago, even before the schools started sliding (IMO).

Learning should be a local matter. The state and federal government should be kept out of it. The closer the control of schools is to the people who care most about the kids the better, and that’s the parents. Logic and reasoning should be taught from the get go.

But included should also be an understanding of how the brain works and the variations of how people learn. Left brain, right brain, image memory versus verbal memory. Front to back versus back to front memory. Each individual is different but can easily be identified. Text books and learning material should take such factors into account so that all students are covered.

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I think teachers should be exposed to that, for sure. You are correct–the government should not be in the business of education. Public schools are not needed.

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If the community gets together and hires a teacher, I would think that would be considered public. The key is variety as well as keeping it local. With variety you reduce the risk of one mistake affecting everyone. Variety encourages competition and with competition they find ways to do a better job. As long as communities are free to choose the best available people then there will be those willing to replace anyone that stumbles.

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Businesses would do a far better job of providing education regardless of their aim. People would have a choice to where their children could attend. That doesn’t mean that secular schools (privately owned and operated) couldn’t also exist. The government should never have gotten their tentacles into the education business. What other employer would allow employees who barely manage to do their jobs, making exorbitant salaries, unable to meet the minimum goals and objectives, to stay on year after year after year with nothing to show for them and reward them with raises?? Not only that, but each year, standardized test scores decline placing American public school children at the bottom of the totem poles, where we used to be on top!!! In addition, every school would have specific criteria in order to operate. There should be a panel of REAL educators (classically trained) to comprise a body setting those standards and criteria. Locally, parents could also have a voice in the school’s educational goals. If they don’t like it, they can go to another school that meets their needs.

This will never happen. At least, not while the government is entrenched in the business of public schools. So, you can breathe easy. In the meantime, our children are being indoctrinated with atheistic-marxist ideology, can’t read, write, or solve a math problem without a calculator, don’t know how to write a thesis statement, topic sentence, write an outline, find Greece on a map, don’t know how to conduct research or use a library. But…here’s the rub: they sure feel good about themselves. They have no idea why they should feel good about themselves, except that someone told them they should. They have no idea what logic is or how to use it. What an absolutely sad travesty of justice for our children. We are now seeing the fruits of the public school labor…

I watch LMN channel and they were featuring a new program starting in April. I can’t remember the name of it, but the program concentrates on Laredo, TX. You want to know how they spelled Laredo? L-O-R-E-D-O. I guess they don’t have spell-chek in TV programming.

BTW, as for the media, if children were properly educated in logical thinking and analytical reasoning, they would have the skills to see through the media’s “logic”.

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The goal should always be the free market. With it comes choice and as long as individuals have choice, they’ll choose what is in their best interest according to what they can manage. No government agency, committee, or other entity can look into the mind of each person and decide what’s in their best interest for them or place a value on their choices. Those things will always be in the eye of the beholder.

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[quote=“Superpsycho, post:15, topic:44678”]
If the community gets together and hires a teacher, I would think that would be considered public. The key is variety as well as keeping it local. With variety you reduce the risk of one mistake affecting everyone. Variety encourages competition and with competition they find ways to do a better job. As long as communities are free to choose the best available people then there will be those willing to replace anyone that stumbles.
[/quote]Unfortunately, in most “communities” the people have ceded their authority to choose teachers to their school district superintendents, who very often hire teachers who share their own political and social philosophy, not those who may be the best teachers. We saw this in New York City, when the liberal academics decided that black pupils needed black teachers or they wouldn’t learn. Stupidity from the top down.

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Much of it stems from the notion consolidation means cost savings and increased productivity. From there it’s easy for people to let others do their worrying for them. The bulk of the worlds population is preoccupied with getting through their day and don’t know how to use their time efficiently. They’ve never been taught the basics of managing their time or being aware, so they can’t teach their children those skills.

I’ve seen a small country school with 2 grades to a room do better than intermediate cities, and be forced to consolidate for that because they surely couldn’t teach the kids well otherwise (in spite of the fact that they were doing it better than the consolidated schools in the larger districts).

The grade school I went to was a “consolidated” school, but it was still better than the “more consolidated” schools. We had 2 active class rooms for 8 grades, one teacher for each room. Before my time, they also had a single teacher for two years of high school. By the way, one of the graduates of that two-year high school (he went on to complete high school elsewhere), at the peak of his career, was the head of the ETC at Princeton (he’s very closely related to me, so I got braggin’ rights!).

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