Christina Romer admitted the 2009 stimulus failed to achieve the 2X multiplier. There are no examples of any other stimulus achieving this. Thus, all he can give me is hypotheticals.
Results are what matter. They’re the sanity check.
You haven’t though.
Politics does this, because it’s built to do it, and there’s no stepping away from it. Rent seeking brings this behavior out every time. You’re not getting to a place where only disinterested actors actually choose how the money is spent based on a cost curve or ROI.
Just like how the Post Office in theory could run fine, but in reality can’t, because it’s managed by Congress who has political incentives that run it into the ground.
You can’t get away from this mess. The mess is in infrastructure, it’s in the military, it’s in rockets, it’s in every enterprise the Government engages in.
And this is because Government operates by allocating resources based upon prestige, connections or tradition. Economics is an afterthought. That’s the reality.
Admit that, maybe then we agree.
I’d rather not. I work in space. I know first hand how awful this is.
How much the old paradigm has stagnated development for decades.
Artemis and the SLS are built like jobs program, white-collar welfare. Not something interested in getting to and staying in space.
It exists because of connections and traditions, like Senator Hatch wanting the Solid Rocket Motor builders for the Space Shuttle in Utah to continue building them for the next NASA vehicle. And another Senator in Alabama wanting Marshall Space Center to integrate that vehicle.
Not merit, not cost, not scale, tradition.
We have an entire industry fed a steady diet of cost-plus contracting, and which fetishizes “heritage” (old technology) in their designs. They’re used to it, and they want to keep it. And it sucks to the viewpoint of anyone who wants this industry to, y’know, do ****. Or update in a continual way like how you see computers and cars do.
SpaceX. “Can you turn a rocket into a commodity?” Lockheed said “no” to Robert Zubrin in the 90’s, Elon Musk said “hold my beer” .
Same thing to “Can you make a rocker reusable?” “Can you make it purposively land?” “Can you make a full-flow stage combustion cycle and not have that cost $10 Billion?”
The entirety of what Musk has done can fit within the cost of 3 Shuttle flights. All of his rockets, all of his launches, all of his sites, all of his tech development. NASA’s own estimators have repeatedly failed to account how much what SpaceX was proposing to do would cost. They were off by a factor of 10.
Cost-plus contracting and distributed suppliers has made things artificially expensive in space for decades, and Elon Musk is calling BS on all of it.
The military also causes this kind of dysfunction. In the 1970s their getting hung up on having automated CnC machines, and their monopsony resulted in us catering to that demand then losing commercial CnC to Germany and Japan.
The military stresses performance whereas everyone else stresses cost.
It’s like if you had to build every car to F1 Formula standards. Or every plane like the SR-71.
Heck, the Soviets had plenty of technology themselves; ever wonder why so little of it proliferated back into consumer goods? It’s the same problem. Monopsony.
The private sector quits doing it because it hates losing money, the government continues because it’s incentivized by Politics, and empowered with tax dollars.
Detroit keeps building roads it doesn’t need because the public Sector Unions demand it. And in a private economy under collapse, Public Sector representation has even more power than usual.
Multiply that x1000 for all the localities we’ve seen go broke over the past decade.