China's quest to catch up with the West


#1

In general, it’s just a good idea to follow this channel. Shrivan interprets geopoltics from a pretty strict Realist lens; that limits him sometimes, but he’s pretty unbiased (so long as we leave Armenia out of things).

Takeways from this video:

Chian is struggling in Aerospace and Shipping to capture its own domestic market. It wants to facilitate a consumer driven economy, lead by homegrown innovation, but years of copy-paste practices are hard to get away from. Additionally, other low-income nations now credibly challenging them in low-cost exports.

If they can’t find a way to produce higher margin goods, they’ll likely fall into the middle income trap. Combined with aging demographics, it’ll prove to be a firestorm for the CCP to handle, and their legitimacy will take a serious beating.


#2

Very ambitious plan reminiscent of the old Soviet 5 Year Plans. As far as increasing domestic consumption we should consider that middle class China is largely confined to the eastern coastal regions while some 700 million inland live in abject poverty. The growing Social Credit System which values party loyalty and good behavior will certainly limit the advancement of many creative individuals who are essential to the plans success. I see China 2025 becoming China 2035, China 2045 …

Also the outcome of the Hong Kong situation will have a great impact on the direction of the country.


#3

Sort of the way the Soviet Union had been predicting the perfecting of “True Communism” by 1980 (but never came)?


#4

Exactly.