Closing the gap


Maybe there’s light at the end of the tunnel and we won’t have to suffer a Hitlery administration (though the alternative may be a disaster itself.)

My opinion on this is NOT based on anything concrete, but rather some speculation on the poll (right there I’m on shaky ground) averages.

I’ve not done any statistical analyses on these things, but I suspect if there were a bell curve done on them, it would show the outliers and you could eliminate them and be left with the sweet spot, which is what I’m using (BTW, NONE of this is scientifically arrived at, nor am I claiming so . . . it’s more “seat of the pants” stuff.)

Trump IS closing the gap, aided by this Comey thing. Will it be fast enough? Who knows?

In another thread here, someone (I think it was old dog) wrote that the Clinton camp will likely lob another stink bomb at Trump. If he DOES NOT take the bait, but rather stays on message (as he has been doing lately), I think he may have a good chance of making this a tight race.

If not . . . if he DOES take the bait and acts like he’s in a NY street fight . . . he’ll lose the gains he has made.

Why is he closing the gap? Other than this Comey thing (and he was coming up even before then), I think what is happening is that as we get closer to Nov 8, people are realizing more and more what a Clinton victory would really mean. IOW, the electorate is having a . . . PANIC ATTACK.


The national polls matter a lot less. The important thing to look at is early voting, and state polls.
Clinton looks to have Nevada and Virginia locked up. Trump seems to have Ohio, Iowa, and Florida locked up.

The most important states are Pennsylvania(by far), followed up by North Carolina, Michigan, New Hampshire and Utah.

Basically, Penn doesn’t have early voting, and Trump needs it. If Clinton wins Penn, she’s almost certain to win overall. Trump also must hold NC. If Clinton wins that, Trump is done.

There are a few weird situations where NH, Utah or Michigan could come into play. But it’s not all that likely. Trump doesn’t need NH or Utah if he wins Penn. And if he loses it, they don’t make it up. Michigan would technically make up for a loss in NC or Penn, but I don’t think he’s likely to lose one of those two yet somehow win in Michigan.


Trump is losing Arizona right now. He’s basically lost North Carolina.


National polls mean nothing. It is the battle ground state polls that matter. I fully expect Hillary to win. It will be a miracle if she doesn’t. The Electoral College is stacked against us. Trump has made too many mistakes. Hillary is evil. I can’t say it any plainer that that. If we elect Trump, it is a risk. We can hope that he will have good people around him.

If the American people elect Hillary it will be a presidency that will be for sale the highest bidder or the Muslin Brotherhood if Umaha Aberdeen gets to run the show.


If you are betting Pennsylvania, forget it. That state is as blue as California and New York. I have never understood why people think it is in play for the presidential election. Philadelphia alone will give 90% of its vote to the Democrats. There are polling places there that vote 100% Democrat whether that is the true vote or not. Pennsylvania is a lost cause.


There are precincts in Philadelphia which give 125% of the vote to Democrats.


Actually, according to the polls (see Bobjam’s disclaimer), Trump has closed the gap quite a bit in PA.


He’ll win AZ easily. NC has been worse than expected for Trump. But keep in mind, the polls expected a 1% drop in the black vote nationally. So far, it’s looking more like a 3% drop. Since that’s a nearly 100% Democratic vote, I’d say it’s closer to a draw ATM.

Trump is still the underdog, as he always was. I’d say his odds today, are about what they were in Spring. 2-1 against.

Trump closes strong. He’s at his best when he’s under pressure. He never gives up. I do think he’ll rally his team to a last minute stand. We won’t know for sure until after the polls close who’s really won. Don’t count out Trump or his team just yet. He has the passion, and the momentum.


I am AFRAID this one will not be over until its over and the fat lady sings…REMEMBER the Dims will ANYTHING to win this election and Trump better wear bullet proof vest…