A week ago I would have bet, and said as much on this site, that Trump had the nomination in the bag. But, looking at the race from the perspective provided by last week’s 2 - 2 primary split between Cruz and Trump, it simply feels like this sucker could be thrown into the convention - with no one having the required 1237 delegates going in.
There are 4 primaries today, 2 more on the 12th and then we have Tuesday the 15th when we have 5 primaries - several of these primaries will be winner take all. I think it very likely we will know on the night of the 15th if Trump has a real chance of gathering the required 1237 delegates.
As of this morning, it looks like Trump or Kasich will win in Michigan today, with Kasich likely taking Ohio on the 15th, Trump or Rubio will most likely take Florida - likely Trump because Cruz will take a sizeable number of votes there. It’s a pretty good bet that Cruz will take at least 3 states within the next week.
My guess is that Rubio will be out of the race before Kasich - I can see Kasich hanging around a long time IF he wins in Ohio - if he does not win there he will have no path to the nomination. I would not be impossible to see Kasich end up with as many or more delegates than Rubio at the conclusion of the 15th primaries.
The point is this - I think it most likely that Rubio will soon be out of the race, Kasich will remain in, with the real race being narrowed down to Trump and Cruz.
I would think that if Kasich hangs around he will take primary votes from Trump. Kasich is a lib/moderate Republican and Trump is not a conservative.
I think this thing just might go to the convention without a nominee. One caveat: If Trump somehow wins both Ohio and Florida, I think he will get to 1237 unless he has a complete meltdown.
Would be interested in how you guys see the race.