Contested Convention?


#1

A week ago I would have bet, and said as much on this site, that Trump had the nomination in the bag. But, looking at the race from the perspective provided by last week’s 2 - 2 primary split between Cruz and Trump, it simply feels like this sucker could be thrown into the convention - with no one having the required 1237 delegates going in.

There are 4 primaries today, 2 more on the 12th and then we have Tuesday the 15th when we have 5 primaries - several of these primaries will be winner take all. I think it very likely we will know on the night of the 15th if Trump has a real chance of gathering the required 1237 delegates.

As of this morning, it looks like Trump or Kasich will win in Michigan today, with Kasich likely taking Ohio on the 15th, Trump or Rubio will most likely take Florida - likely Trump because Cruz will take a sizeable number of votes there. It’s a pretty good bet that Cruz will take at least 3 states within the next week.

My guess is that Rubio will be out of the race before Kasich - I can see Kasich hanging around a long time IF he wins in Ohio - if he does not win there he will have no path to the nomination. I would not be impossible to see Kasich end up with as many or more delegates than Rubio at the conclusion of the 15th primaries.

The point is this - I think it most likely that Rubio will soon be out of the race, Kasich will remain in, with the real race being narrowed down to Trump and Cruz.

I would think that if Kasich hangs around he will take primary votes from Trump. Kasich is a lib/moderate Republican and Trump is not a conservative.

I think this thing just might go to the convention without a nominee. One caveat: If Trump somehow wins both Ohio and Florida, I think he will get to 1237 unless he has a complete meltdown.

Would be interested in how you guys see the race.


#2

Wouldn’t be surprised, after which Trump will launch his 3rd Party candidacy, INSURING a Hillary win in November. Yes, I know he’s said he wouldn’t do that, but he also said that he supported gun control, “gay marriage” and abortion-on-demand, too…NONE of which he claims to support TODAY.


#3

He might walk - no telling what Trump would do.

I think he will get pretty close to 1237 - maybe 1100-1150. With Cruz at about 800 - with the remaining 550 or so divided up between Kasich and Rubio.

If that is the case, it will go to at least a second ballot and I can’t believe Trump would get the required number of delegates to give him the nod. I think Cruz would eventually win the nomination. BUT . . . keep in mind, the GOP hates Cruz with as much vigor as they dislike Trump. And don’t overlook the fact the RNC can change the nominating rules right up to the time the convention actually begins.

SO . . .

One should never rule out the utter IDIOCY of the GOP/RNC. Should the behind the scenes arm twisting/deal making lead to a Kasich or Rubio nomination, or the eventual nomination of some other “moderate/liberal Repub”, there would be no need to hold a general election in November - for all intents and purposes, Hillary would simply walk into the white House.


#4

If Trump has a commanding plurality but is just short of 1237 the superdelegates, who are not bound by primary results, will come into play. Although a majority of the superdelegates will be establishment types but there may be enough of them to realize that going to a a second ballot (and probably many more after that) will be collective suicide for the party in November, and maybe forever. We already know that many of them prefer Hillary to Trump but there might be just enough others to put Trump over on the first ballot. There is also the consideration that the rank and file delegates are not all political hacks and their four day hotel reservations are not long enough for extended chaos. I don’t see Rubio, Kasich, Romney or Bob Dole (on a gurney) as the next GOP nominee. It’s going to be Trump or Cruz, barring some real suprises today and next Tuesday.

PS The chaos could also be avoided by the second place candidate (Cruz or Trump) releasing their delegates from their pledges before the first roll call.


#5

About a year ago I predicted that Hillary would be elected POTUS in 2016. Barring her indictment, I still believe that. I predicted her election in spite of the turmoil afoot around the world, much of which she had a hand in creating. I predicted her victory in part because the one predictable thing about the Republican Party is that it NEVER MISSES AN OPPORTUNITY TO MISS AN OPPORTUNITY.

The miserable record of Republicans in Congress over a long period and the lack-luster record of the Republican-controlled Congress itself the last year has given rise to a large segment of the Party that is, for lack of a better term, PISSED OFF - BIG TIME. Count me among them.

Enter Donald Trump.

I look for it to unfold more or less as follows:

If Trump wins the nomination a significant number of conservatives within the Party walk. If Trump loses the nomination at the convention a significant number of his followers walk. I think the ONLY way one of these two possibilities fails to come about is if Ted Cruz were to win at least 1237 delegates in the primaries - and I do not think that possible.

Either option is likely to mean fewer Repubs show up to vote making it easier for Hillary Clinton to win in the general election.

Frightening? You damn right!!


#6

I don’t see Trump calculating that he can “win over” the GOP Conservatives when most of his previous history was in supporting liberals. Yes, there are some who’ve bought his BS this past year, but he is, at heart, a left-of-center buffoon and anyone who’s taken the time to CHECK his history knows that. I’m not sold on this “evolving” business he claims.


#7

We have said it plenty of times on this site. The GOP is a dying monstrosity. The republican base is too diverse and not willing to compromise with other conservatives. The number of presidential candidates in each election is staggering for the GOP in recent elections. While Democrats run 2 or 3 people we have 6+. Worse off they represent different factions of conservatives. It is impossible for the republican party to rally around a candidate simply because we cannot agree to disagree.


#8

Let’s face it. The RNC is washed up.


#9

I think the problem is that we have 'WAY too many Democrats-at-heart who’ve decided to join the GOP and undermine conservatives. The ELECTED “Republicans” GET elected by pretending to be conservatives, too, then screw us all over as soon as they hit D.C. Voters memories being what they are, they keep re-electing these people based on what they remember was their reason for electing them in the first place. We’ll see if that has changed IF Florida re-elects Rubio to the Senate after his poor performance.


#10

Let’s face it. The RNC is washed up. The Cruz supporters HATE the Trump supporters; the Trump supporters HATE the Cruz supporters.

Nice going, RNC, as you HATE them BOTH, as either one would spoil your fun.

Never mind that either might serve our country well, even if in different respects. Never mind putting your country first. FORGET thinking that the supporters of either candidate might have a point. Heaven FORBID anyone should to THAT!

Let’s just all sit around watching the country blow up in our faces, as that seems to be everybody’s favorite pastime these days.

Here we’ve got TWO candidates who might set the country on a better pathway than what we’ve had going for too many years.
But, instead of giving honest consideration for either with any respect for another person’s pov, we trash, castigate, and are hateful, when NEITHER IS OUR ENEMY!

The enemy is the DNC. The enemy is the RNC. The enemy are those who want to control, rather than find a path to our country’s salvation.

Bless, it’s heartbreaking.


#11

[quote=“2cent, post:10, topic:48412”]
Let’s face it. The RNC is washed up. The Cruz supporters HATE the Trump supporters; the Trump supporters HATE the Cruz supporters.
[/quote]I consider myself both(though I favor Trump), and I love myself quite a lot :yes:


#12

I agree with much of what you say, 2cent. However, my ire is split between the GOP hacks, the voters and the slugs in Congress who the voters elected and reelected even though for years they proved themselves useless and cowardly.

Most of the sentiment you expressed above is why I will vote for the eventual nominee - while hoping it is Cruz. If it is Trump I feel compelled to “roll the dice”, vote for him and hope for the best.