Electoral map predictions

Post your predicted 2012 Electoral College maps in this thread.

Here is mine:

Whoever wins Ohio takes the White House.

Ah, cool. I never noticed we had one on-site

I will have to update my more comprehensive prediction thread.

CWolf, I noticed you gave Florida and Virginia to Obama, why’s that? Polling has them solidly going to Romney.

Polling has Virgina with a 2 point Obama lead. Florida is 0.5 Romney. The reason I think Obama is going to win Florida is because of early voting totals.

In the past, Republicans have held a large lead in early voting in Florida. This year, Democrats have the advantage. Democrats tend to be flakier voters than Republicans, so I believe the likely voter models are slightly underestimating Democratic turnout.

Recall that Obama is leading polls of registered voters in Florida by 4-5 points. It’s the likely voter screen that hauls it over to Romney by a half percent. It would appear that Democrats are more motivated in Florida than originally assumed. I think Obama is most likely to lose in order:
Florida
New Hampshire
Colorado
Virginia

None of those four would surprise me as they’re all very close. But I’m judging on an over under premise. Using “toss-up” is for girly men :smiley: So, I think Obama has about a %55 chance at Florida due to early voting results. Obama way over performed in Colorado in 2008. Hispanics have been more active than in past years. Leading me to think Obama has an edge there.

I’m basically just taking New Hampshire and Virginia polls at face value. NH is unpredictable and Virginia doesn’t have many swing voters. Tim Kaine seems to be leading by a wide margin, and I wonder how many Romney/Kaine voters there really are.

the RCP average in Florida is Romney +1.4 points, a Romney +6 poll came out today.

the only Florida polls that show Obama leading are:

PPP which is a democrat polling agency and they used a +3% D sample.
MSNBC an extreme liberal network and using a +2 D sample.
Quinnipiac a left leaning pollster using a +7 D sample!

In 2008 dems had a +3 advantage. Do you really think democrat turnout will be the same as 2008? In 2004 the republicans had a 4% advantage in Florida

Now to Virginia where today the RCP average has Romney with a .3% advantage

the only polls showing Obama ahead:

Quinnipiac again heavy left favoring with a D +8 sample
SurveyUSA with a force poll (not allowed to chose undecided) giving Obama a less than 1% win with a 3% MOE and 4% of voters voting 3rd party
WaPo a liberal newspaper that has Independents as the highest sample and still D +4%

In 2008 dems had a +6 advantage. Do you really think democrat turnout will be the same as 2008? In 2004 the republicans had a 4% advantage in Virginia

Its about turnout. If Obama get the same 2008 turnout hes going to win, if its even half way between 2008 and 2004 Romney cruises to a relatively easy win.

I had not seen the Mason Dixon poll. I should clarify that I’m using Nate Silver’s numbers which adjusts for house effects.

Up until a few days ago, I assumed Romney would be the favorite in Florida. But after I see that Democrats are leading in early voting by about 150,000(they lead in 2008 by 250,000). They won the state last time by their early vote margin. It makes me think they have a good shot. It could be that they’re just banking more sure votes early and all their flaky voters don’t show. That I can’t say. But every indication I see indicates that Democratic turnout is going to be very close to 2008. Maybe a little over, maybe a little under. Romney is going to do better with Indys than McCain.

But it’s unlikely that 2012 will look like 2004. Republicans were passionate about Bush. Democrats accepted Kerry. There is something of 2004 in the cards, but I think the tickets have swapped. Obama is still popular with his base. Republicans are the ones voting primarily against the incumbent.

I think 538 is about right. I think Romney has less than a 1/5 chance of winning the electoral college.

I’m curious, if all votes are supposed to be counted on election day, how do we know how early voters have voted?

Exit polls

well theres your problem

Nate Silver’s much-celebrated model is, like other poll averages, based simply on analyzing the toplines of public polls. This, more than any other factor, is where he and I part company.

If you read only the toplines of polls - the single number that says something like “Romney 48, Obama 47” - you would get the impression from a great many polls that this is a very tight race nationally, in which Obama has a steady lead in key swing states. In an ordinary year, the toplines of the polls eventually converge around the final result - but this year, there seems to be some stubborn splits among the poll toplines that reflect the pollsters’ struggles to come to agreement on who is going to vote.

Poll toplines are simply the sum of their internals: that is, different subgroups within the sample. The one poll-watchers track most closely is the partisan breakdowns: how each candidate is doing with Republican voters, Democratic voters and independent voters, two of whom (the Rs & Ds) have relatively predictable voting patterns. Bridging the gap from those internals to the topline is the percentage of each group included in the poll, which of course derives from the likely-voter modeling and other sampling issues described above. And therein lies the controversy.

My thesis, and that of a good many conservative skeptics of the 538 model, is that these internals are telling an entirely different story than some of the toplines: that Obama is getting clobbered with independent voters, traditionally the largest variable in any election and especially in a presidential election, where both sides will usually have sophisticated, well-funded turnout operations in the field. He’s on track to lose independents by double digits nationally, and the last three candidates to do that were Dukakis, Mondale and Carter in 1980. And he’s not balancing that with any particular crossover advantage (i.e., drawing more crossover Republican voters than Romney is drawing crossover Democratic voters). Similar trends are apparent throughout the state-by-state polls, not in every single poll but in enough of them to show a clear trend all over the battleground states.

If you averaged Obama’s standing in all the internals, you’d capture a profile of a candidate that looks an awful lot like a whole lot of people who have gone down to defeat in the past, and nearly nobody who has won. Under such circumstances, Obama can only win if the electorate features a historically decisive turnout advantage for Democrats - an advantage that none of the historically predictive turnout metrics are seeing, with the sole exception of the poll samples used by some (but not all) pollsters. Thus, Obama’s position in the toplines depends entirely on whether those pollsters are correctly sampling the partisan turnout.

That’s where the importance of knowing and understanding electoral history comes in. Because if your model is relying entirely on toplines that don’t make any sense when you look at the internals with a knowledge of the past history of what winning campaigns look like, you need to start playing Socrates.

Baseball Crank: POLITICS: On Polling Models, Skewed & Unskewed

I don’t try to unskew polls. I like averages and Nate gives me averages++. If all polls are terribly wrong, then of course Romney can win. If you’re that confident, I hope you have money wagered on Romney. You will do quite well if he wins.

[quote=“Jebby, post:8, topic:36907”]
I’m curious, if all votes are supposed to be counted on election day, how do we know how early voters have voted?
[/quote]Absentee ballot requests by party and in person totals where a registrant is stricken from the totals. Basically, we don’t know technically know how those people voted, but it’s pretty safe to assume that most Democrats are voting for Obama and most Republicans are voting for Romney. You can assume independents will vote as their polling numbers indicate. So it’s imperfect, but pretty good.

Yup let Nate do your thinking for you thats probably for the best. Its not that the polls are wrong they are just predicting a historically high democrat turnout and historically low republican turnout. Do you honestly think that is the case?

Just look at the poll internals you see that the Quinnipiac poll of FL, VA and OH has Romney up with independents. Do you really think, like Quinnipiac does, that Romney will win independents by 21% and still lose VA by 2 points?

Romney +5 in Florida, Obama won by 7 in 08 (12 point swing) thats 3.78% total vote swing using 2008 turnouts, Obama won by 3.24%
Romney +6 in Ohio, Obama won 8 in 08 (14 point swing) thats a 4.2% total vote swing using 2008 turnouts, Obama won by 4.59%
Romney +21 in Virginia, Obama won by 1 in 08 (23 point swing) thats a 6.2% total vote swing using 2008 turnouts, Obama won by 6.3%

Even using a historic 2008 turnout with those internals Obama barely squeaks by, any drop in dem turnout or raise in republican turnout puts Romney as the next president

I used to do something similar, but very inferior to what Nate does. I used to try and figure out things like house bias all by myself based on observations from past polls.

I use Nate as my arbiter for polling averages because he is simply better than anyone else. Obviously I still deviate from him, as he has Romney winning Florida.

I also forgot to mention the huge voter registration advantage.

This cycle, our teams registered 1,792,261 voters in key battleground states – nearly double the number of voters the Obama campaign registered in 2008. These new voters are already voting in early vote states. In fact, 28 percent of them – 345,233 – have already voted. In North Carolina, for example, 137,808 of the voters OFA-NC registered have already voted in a state the President won by just 14,000 in 2008, and that will come down to the wire again on Tuesday.

A campaign memo from Obama claiming how good his ground game is :howler:

how about 2 independent pollsters showing Romney winning by 6-7% among early voters

http://sas-origin.onstreammedia.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Production/Cms/POLL/oqfuqf6mvkcmge4hybbfog.gif

Battleground state vs national. Romney is cleaning up in Oklahoma, not doing so well in Ohio. Anyway, if I’m wrong, I will freely admit that the polling was way off and the unskewers were right.
I see no reason to suggest that the polls are biased towards Obama, you think they are. We will see who is right in three days.

How about you post your 2012 electoral map? And do the same for Senate and Congress :slight_smile:

Yup Romney is going to win the popular vote by 5 points and lose the EV, keep hanging your hat on that

I see no reason to suggest that the polls are biased towards Obama, you think they are.

I have shown you plenty of reasons, you have chosen to ignore them. Polls are showing a larger democrat turnout than the historic 2008 turnout. I keep asking if you really think that is going to happen and you havent answered. Romney is getting crowds of 30k in Ohio and 18K in Colorado while Obama is getting smaller crowds than John McCain did at this time 4 years ago.

Obama Attracting Smaller Crowds than McCain in

How about you post your 2012 electoral map?

What I see on your map is not all that different from what I said. There is a very real chance your map happens. I especially thinks there’s a good chance of it without Ohio.

I’ve told you several times that Democratic turnout appears to be roughly on par with 2008. I don’t know for sure if that means a little better or a little worse. As a result, I’m going with the middle and guessing it’s the same. The polls and ballot requests right now are suggesting 2012 looks like 2008 on the Democratic side. It also projects higher Republican turnout and indys going for Romney.

I think the popular vote is about a toss up right now. The electoral college looks strong for Obama.

I say the odds of Obama winning the EV is about 4/5. What would you say your confidence level is on a Romney EV win?

You said Obama was going to win 332 EVs

I’ve told you several times that Democratic turnout appears to be roughly on par with 2008. I don’t know for sure if that means a little better or a little worse. As a result, I’m going with the middle and guessing it’s the same.

You said it once but gave no real reason why other than Obama’s spin memo that even the huffpo scoffed at. Obama’s support is down from last time every where you turn people are talking about how they voted for Obama in 08 but arent voting for him this time. They arent turning Romney but still they arent supporting Obama. While Romney has gone from a luke warm anti-candidate like Kerry into a full on “vote for me” candidate.

The polls and ballot requests right now are suggesting 2012 looks like 2008 on the Democratic side.

the polls mean jack because they are weighted by guessing the turnout

as for ballot requests and early voting

Adrian Gray, who oversaw the Bush 2004 voter-contact operation and is now a policy analyst for a New York investment firm, makes the point that as of Tuesday, 530,813 Ohio Democrats had voted early or had requested or cast an absentee ballot. That’s down 181,275 from four years ago. But 448,357 Ohio Republicans had voted early or had requested or cast an absentee ballot, up 75,858 from the last presidential election.

That 257,133-vote swing almost wipes out Mr. Obama’s 2008 Ohio victory margin of 262,224. Since most observers expect Republicans to win Election Day turnout, these early vote numbers point toward a Romney victory in Ohio.

Rove: Sifting the Numbers for a Winner - WSJ.com

I think the popular vote is about a toss up right now. The electoral college looks strong for Obama.

The popular and electoral will go together, dont kid yourself

I say the odds of Obama winning the EV is about 4/5. What would you say your confidence level is on a Romney EV win?

Id have to see what the last round of polling looks like on monday the sandy polling blackout has tossed a little wrench in trying to predict the election. Right now id say about a 60% chance for Romney.

The keys to the White House in 2012 reside in OH and VA.

[quote=“CWolf, post:5, topic:36907”]
I think Obama is most likely to lose in order:
Florida
New Hampshire
Colorado
Virginia

None of those four would surprise me as they’re all very close.
[/quote]Yes, I think Obama is better than even odds at each of those states, totaling 332. But at least %20 odds of losing outright. The odds that he falls short of 332 is better than %50 IMO. It’s just that each one of those states is more likely to fall his way than not. I expect him to lose some of them. At least one.

The popular and electoral will go together, dont kid yourself
You realize Kerry lost by %3.5 nationally and yet was just Ohio away from winning the EV, right? And lost it by less than %2. Meaning, had Kerry lost the popular vote by %1.5, he would have won in 2004. Bush won the time before that, doing that exact thing. Kennedy won the popular vote by %0.2, but won the electoral college by nearly 100 votes.

A %3+ win will guide you to electoral vote victory. A %0.5 win will do no such thing. I do not expect either candidate to get more than +2 in the popular vote.