The recent dem wins in places that weren’t even supposed to be close say otherwise. It’s going to come out to turnout and nothing turns people out more than anger and hatred.
The “dem win” in Alabama was the result of a paid-for hit job by dirty dem workers combined with ILLEGAL votes from Georgian Democrats. The “dem win” in Pennsylvania was the result of the Democrat candidate running as if he were a REPUBLICAN…again, combined with ILLEGAL votes by Democrat unionists from neighboring districts supporting Lamb. This is going to be the PATTERN in the upcoming mid-terms. Slanderous accusations by people who afterwards disappear back into the woodwork like the cockroaches they are, combined with “ballot-stuffing” operations by Democrat operatives, mostly because of the lack of VOTER ID LAWS.
You don’t say…
Actually, I DO say…
No, my position is what I said it was; not what you strawmanned it as being. As to what you’re accusing me of, I find it ironic (to put it politely) that you don’t seem to think that the black guy can be a racist…
Don’t forget that Hillary claimed him as her “mentor”.
Geezz, you really believe that?
Wow!!! That towering intellect is showing again.
Yes, I’m getting a headache just reading through this thread?
Already do that. This thread just reinforces it.
Wait a minute . . . wait a minute . . .
I’ve got to be reading this wrong.
Are you saying that Obama WASN’T racist?
Peters is a Russophobe who still seems to think that Russia of today is the same Russia of 40 years ago.
All. Neocons. Must. Go.
“cyclical mass human psychology”
The pendulum swings. It always does.
You’re trying to assert the Republicans will simply become noncompetitive, I’m saying that’s wrong, because that denies what actually happens sociologically.
The damage trump is doing to the GOP is generational. The pendulum will eventually swing back, but not for a long long time.
It’s young white voters in fly over counties he appeals to.
Urban youth maybe, not to the ones who like America, who are religious or don’t mind Christianity’s presence in the culture, who are living in places that the “economic recovery” of the Obama years ignored, and want someone to give them or their (dying) communities a shot at a future.
This dovetails with other polls. The reasons are obvious: millennials aren’t scared of minorities, or gays, or trans, or the thousand other things conservatives are terrified of.
And Polls are urban-centric, we found that out in 2016.
Trump was polling zero with blacks, yet he won more black votes than Romney.
It’s not about fear, it’s about perception of the future (did you read the article I gave you?)
Does my community have a future, and are immigrants displacing us economically?
Trump likely gained black votes, just because he was taking aim at that concern, which blacks actually think about, and know that Democrats won’t speak to it.
The polls were mostly accurate about the popular vote (which is what they predicted, not the EC winner). Clinton won by two points and most polls were within a point or two of that.
Which she won because of California; elections still pin themselves on individual districts & states, which RCP got very wrong.
Democrats can perfectly well take the most number of votes home, and still be the losers in the House or Senate. Because, urban bias, while urban areas don’t cover most of the country.
You’re right that outrage tends to lead elections, but you’re wrong if you’re thinking rural areas are suddenly going to become permanently blue.
That fails to account for the fact that it’s communities that vote, not the majoritarian population, and equally fails to acknowledge that young people in rural areas are not becoming more Blue-friendly. Quite the opposite.
“Alt-right” narratives are becoming stronger, not weaker.
Under our system, it’s possible for you to dominate in Congress, and have the Presidency, with just 1/3 of the population voting for you. So long as Republican supporters cover more areas, they have a base that will keep putting them in power, and keep allowing them to trade places with the Democrats.
You could just as easily handwave away Trump’s winning deeply red states, like Texas. Clinton won by two, and the polls mostly had in her in that range. And Trump was never quite the underdog he likes to portray himself as. Fivethirtyeight had his chances at 30%, which was similar to the betting odds at the time. That’s not exactly “Dewey defeats Truman” territory.
So when the polls say millennials are abandoning the GOP, and the GOP keep losing races it has no business losing (e.g., Penn special district, Alabama senate seat, a bunch of state seats), it’s pretty clear the GOP is in trouble.