How has Trump done with jobs?

This is an example of what @Pappadave complained about to me when I cite statistics. The Examiner points out:

4.2 percent [nominal] growth in the second quarter of 2018.

Which is 100% true. But it lacks some crucial context that makes the information more useful and puts the information in a proper context. The Examiner is being intentionally misleading or they aren’t knowledgeable enough to understand the data they are reporting.

So what is it that makes this reporting misleading??

Real growth for that quarter was 3.2% Real growth is how we measure growth in any meaningful way. 4.2% looks great, but when put in context (real vs nominal), the highest rate of growth was right before Trump took office (Q1 2015 - 3.9% - real growth) and prior to that it was in 2010 (3.1% Q3 real growth)

Using nominal statistics is like citing the population by only measuring births and ignoring deaths and immigration/ emigration. The gross increase in population would be measured in births, the net would be births immigration minus anything that causes the population to decrease which would give you a much closer actual number.

Another example:

For the first time in more than a decade, growth is projected to exceed 3 percent over the calendar year.

Real growth is what matters and how best to make comparisons. Real growth has been declining for almost a year.

Jobs

Here are the jobs number sliced and diced every possible way you can think, most if not all significant statistics are trending downward.

http://econintersect.com/pages/releases/release.php?post=202001100809

Now in fairness to Trump, there are a few things happening, unemployment is falling and labor slack is being reduced. What we need now is not just jobs but better jobs. Automation will be key in freeing people from the lowest paying lowest skilled jobs, jobs that can easily be automated (cashier at McDonald’s). Of course, in order to get people out of low skilled work, we’ll need higher levels of education and opportunity.

That said, pointing the finger at Trump I’d point out that, undoubtedly, the trade war, which coincides perfectly with the most recent down turn (Q2 2018), correlates perfectly, has contributed to the real slowdown and is part of the self-inflicted issue Trump faces.

Do you know of any specific initiatives Trump or his administration have supported or enacted to get lower wage, lower-income people greater opportunity for education, be it college or any sort of training in trades or vocational skills?

As far as the stats, I know that media in general, not just the right-leaning media uses statistics the way that the Examiner has done in the example I gave.

Most people don’t know what the terms “real” and “nominal” mean in an economic context (one reason a good education is so important and why economics should be taught as a class just like math and English).

That said, not everything Trump has done has been bad. He lowered taxes and increased spending. This nets more money into the private sector and in my opinion is the single biggest factor in the growth we’ve seen.

That said, most of the benefits have gone to people that do very little in terms of driving demand. Much of it has been captured by the investor class and corporations that are sitting on trillions of dollars because the economy lacks the requisite demand to drive greater levels of investment.

This is what some might call the failure of supply-side econ. The idea that if you give the investor class more money that money will work it’s way down into the broader economy. Insted what we’re seeing is the wealthy are using money to capture more money.

See, Capitalism was a story about creating a product, selling it and using that money to buy other things that people needed/ wanted…

So, Product—>Capital---->Product.

In the financial economy that’s grown over the last 30 years what we’re seeing today is capital used to create a product to capture even more capital.

So, Capital---->Product---->Capital.

This isn’t an optimal way for Capitalism to work. Adam Smith and Marx both understood this, it’s amazing to me that so few people understand it today.

Efficient capitalism, a system that operates entirely in the best interest of individuals, will fail to see that individuals that adhere to a Randian Esque variety of capitalism will end up destroying the very markets they need for their own survival.

I find it hilarious that you of all people would think a good education is important; if someone says the United States won WW2 you ask for a “link”.

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BS on a shingle. You’re ACTUALLY claiming that nearly HALF of the people in the U.S. are living below the poverty line??? Just how stupid must one BE these days to be a “progressive?”

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You are correct, that was a typo, the number is 14%, not 44%.

And 60% of Americans will be in the top 10% for at least 1 year.

The people in these categories is not static. There’s economic mobility; going both ways.

Yes, I read the Heritage and AEI reports that say that, though, let’s be clear, what we’re talking about is income, not wealth. There is a HUGE difference in income and wealth.

The range by state to be in the top 10% in terms of income ranges from around ~$150k in states like AL, MS and WV and $320k at the top in DC.

The reports don’t specifically say or I missed it scanning through the paper, but I believe they are talking about family income, which in most places means that salaries are usually around $75k per person/ houshold +/- …

That said, someone, making these kinds of incomes can and often do have zero or less than zero net wealth. One of the reasons why you only need to have around $100k in net wealth to be in the top 10% of wealthiest families.

Thus, stating that 60% of people earn enough to be in the top 10% of income earners for at least 1.2% of their lives means little as (I would be willing to bet) the vast majority of those people will have very little or any net wealth. If you don’t include the homes they’ve purchased and live in (a very illiquid asset) I bet most people that make the top 10% fo ar least a year have negative net wealth.

And indeed, regardless of the fluidity of the people that move into and out of these categories over time the wealth accrued by those at the bottom is shrinking…,. (the latest stats I could find). Though I doubt things have improved significantly since 2013.

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Total wealth is similar. Drastic reductions in the bottom 80%

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There is one prime way to improve your net worth. You SAVE. That’s what my wife and I did. We put away about 20% a year. If you blow through your income every year and worse yet, go into debt, you will end up with nothing. My in-laws have done that all of their lives, despite high incomes. Even the Hunt Brothers, who were billionaires, went broke speculating in silver futures.

If you spend yourself to the poor house, it’s your fault. I know that you will probably propose yet another government program to fix that. Government is your god, Mr. Brown. It can solve every problem, real and imagined, according to you.

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You’re not going to find what net wealth is by offering stats measuring relative wealth.

You only know what people get overtime by measuring absolute wealth, and when you do that, you find the bottom quintile has been getting richer, in every decade. Moving on up.

This video is 3.5 minutes long. If you “don’t have the time”, I call shenanigans.

And this is a hard no CS.

The bottom quintile got richer, and more moved into higher income categories. It’s relative wealth that declined. Do not confuse the two.

Equally, speaking of households is problematic when the average composition of households has changed. Households in previous decades were more likely to have several working adults; today, you have two or even just one person incomes in those households, even among the poor.

So even if there are places where income per household declined, per person, it did not. It grew. Thomas Sowell has been pointing this out for decades.

Ironically, ever dollar saved is a dollar not spend driving demand. The paradox of thrift. That said, you are correct. That said, I’ve lived in both worlds, paycheck-to-paycheck and being able to save 20%+ of my income. Looking back, could I have saved more? Of course, there are always things that we didn’t need, that fishing rod, soda pop, subscription to Car and Driver. But, that’s part of what makes a standard of living a standard of living.

Assuming you have the money to blow, sure. A family of 4 in an average city. What kind of salary, as a family, do you think they need in order to have a respectable lifestyle and be able to save, let’s say, 20% for retirement?

As long it’s of the people, by the people and for the people, then I think government can be used to create a society that’s better by almost any metric. But I admit it’s difficult to achieve, but then again, nothing worth having comes easy. But worship, like a god? Ironic, as I don’t worship anything, gods or government. BTW, government’s don’t solve problems, people solve problems.

Nonsense, CSB. People don’t “save” money by putting it under their mattresses. They put it into “safe” investments…even interest-bearing savings accounts…where it’s USED to earn money for the savers.

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Is Trump a good president? I read a lot of negative also there are positive but still don’t know the truth.

Welcome, DanielShaw!

Yes, President Trump IS a great President! For the first time in my 78 years on this planet, we have a President who says exactly what he means and means exactly what he says…and then DELIVERS on each of his campaign promises. I was skeptical before the election. I knew he’d given big bucks to Democrats in the past and even given a VERY large wedding gift to Chelsea Clinton and attended her wedding. He’s proven my skepticism unfounded almost daily since the election.

Can he SEEM crude and “unlettered” from time to time? Yes. Still, he thwarts the Democrats at every turn and he talks in terms that the vast majority of Americans understand and with which they agree. Was it “impolitic” for him to characterize MS13 “immigrants” as animals? Probably, but he called them exactly what they ARE and Americans understood and agreed…at least those living outside of the “blue” enclaves in New England, D.C. and the Left Coast do.

Funds are also required for investing. That is just as important as consumption because it encourages informed investment choices. That “investing democracy” is a FAR BETTER system than your Marxist planned economy, Mr. Brown.

It’s a shame that you never took an economics courses in college, Mr. Brown. If you had, you would have learned something other than the Marxist drivel that you spout here about “equal incomes and net worth for everybody.”

Of course you could be like AOC. She is supposed to have a bachelors degree in economics. She obviously went to garbage school or has learned forgotten everything she learned. She’s a complete idiot on the subject now.

You need to put money into your employers’ 401 k. That goes double if they are matching your contributions. Family have lots of money to blow Disney. Maybe they need to stay home more an save. I didn’t take trips like that when I was young on an annual basis.

There is no “government of the people” for your Democrat Party. They are now wasting our time on an impeachment of an elected president while the Congress should be doing the people’s business. Your Democrat Party is a bunch of want to be dictators. There is no “for the people” aspect to them.

Investments do not drive consumer demand, consumer demand drives investment.

When too much money is saved (securities, CD’s, savings accounts and checking accounts) or invested, there is less money driving demand (all other things being equal) the economy will stall and it’s beginning right now.

yes. @DanielShaw. He is a good president.

Trump’s Top 10 Achievements for 2019

Trump’s Top 10 Achievements for 2019
COMMENTARY

By Steve Cortes
December 31, 2019

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AP Photo/Luis M. Alvarez

Trump’s Top 10 Achievements for 2019 America stands on the cusp of a new decade that promises to unfold as the new “Roaring Twenties.” A review of President Trump’s 2019 achievements, building on the successes of 2017 and 2018, provides context for the year and decade ahead, and reasons to expect a resounding Trump reelection next November.

Here are my top 10:

Jobs – The stunning recent news on employment proves, more than any other metric, the efficacy of President Trump’s growth doctrine of economic nationalism and the diffusion of power. Defying globalist skeptics from Wall Street, academia, and the corporate media, payrolls surged in America in 2019. The most recent jobs report revealed a plethora of records and extended the wage-growth winning streak to 16 straight months above a 3% pace, a mark seen only three months total during the sluggish Obama years. In addition, the fastest wage gains now flow to those groups that formerly lagged badly in the slow-growth recovery following the Great Recession. For example, the lowest 10% of earners saw income grow at an astounding 7% rate over the last year. Similarly, those without a high school diploma welcomed 9% wage acceleration in 2019.

Broadening the Movement – 2019 represented a seminal breakout year for the America First movement as the Republican Party changes to a workers’ party. This new focus translates, already, into significant signs of ethnic, racial, and geographic diversity for the GOP. For example, a recent CNN poll in deeply blue California reported 32% minority support for Trump vs. current Democratic front-runner Joe Biden. Similarly, recent polls by The Hill and Emerson show Latino approval for the president at nearly 40%. It is difficult to overstate the importance of this kind of minority support, both for politics and, more importantly, for the overall cohesion of our society.

Confronting China – Though a near-term détente in trade tensions was reached, Trump proved to the world in 2019 that tariffs can be effectively deployed to force the Chinese Communist Party into a bargaining posture. The soaring economy in America demonstrated that tough trade policy can indeed coincide with growth.

Trade Deals With Allies – In contrast to the mostly contentious trade chess match with Beijing, Trump proved that America First hardly means America alone. The USMCA was finally ratified by the House of Representatives this year and points to a new era of prosperity with our neighbors as the global supply chain reorients from the Far East back to the Americas. Similarly, a breakthrough agreement was signed with Japan and the new U.S.-Korea trade pact took effect in early 2019.

Judges – While Nancy Pelosi dithers and corporate media obsess over the sham impeachment inquest, President Trump and Senate Majority Leader Mitch Mitchell quietly pile up a historic pace of judicial confirmations. Trump in 2019 secured his 50th federal appeals court judge in only three years, compared to just 55 for President Obama over eight years. Over the long term, remaking the federal judiciary into an originalist, constitutionalist branch of government may create Trump’s most enduring legacy.

Remain-in-Mexico Policy – Our country still needs to drastically reform its inane asylum laws and provide vastly more border wall funding, but nonetheless President Trump found a fair and effective near-term solution for border control by requiring asylum seekers to apply from Mexico rather than trespassing across our sovereign border. Not surprisingly, according to NPR, less than 1% of the economic migrants who apply actually qualify as refugees. Trump’s 2019 move, therefore, provides a deterrent and averted a full-scale crisis at our border.

Mueller Exoneration – Though admittedly not an active achievement, nevertheless the long-awaited Mueller report validated the president on two key topics. First, that no one in the 2016 Trump campaign actively cooperated with Russia or with any other foreign power. Secondly, Democratic Party chieftains such as Rep. Adam Schiff, along with a complicit media, repeatedly fed the public demonstrable lies for years about supposed “proof” of conspiracy.

Al-Baghdadi Killing – The October special forces raid that eliminated the terrorist Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi proved that America can aggressively hunt down terrorists and dispense with enemies without nation-building and concomitant large-scale troop commitments. Some brave U.S. fighters, along with a terrific dog, highlighted that surgical strikes can protect our homeland without the massive outlays of blood and treasure employed by Trump’s predecessors.

Natural Gas Exports Soar – Early in the Trump presidency, America became a net natural gas exporter for the first time since the Eisenhower administration. In 2019, this trend expanded in earnest, with an astonishing 60% growth rate of liquefied natural gas exports for the year. Establishing America as an energy superpower drives domestic prosperity, particularly in heartland energy regions, and facilitates affordable energy to power the on-shoring manufacturing renaissance that has produced 500,000 new factory jobs under Trump. In addition, American energy dominance benefits the geopolitical security of the entire globe.

Space Force – Establishing the sixth military service branch in 2019 was pure Trump: imaginative, bold, forward-looking, and – predictably – roundly derided by establishment critics. In alignment with his outsider perspective, Trump correctly ascertains the potential of space as a warfighting domain, and that America must dominate there. As satellites increasingly guide the behaviors of our everyday lives, the U.S. Space Force will protect our security and economy far into the future, forming a lasting legacy for this most unorthodox president.

Trumps Top 10 Achievements for 2019 | RealClearPolitics

More at the link.

As we go about living among Trump haters and those uninformed by the fake media about Trump, online or off, the opportunity might arise to answer the question (or the challenge): “What has Trump done that we should be happy about?!”

This list is a pretty good response that I will keep handy. We all should. Friends don’t let friends be stupid.

Sure, the key is to have an economy where demand and the need for investment it creates reaches something close to equilibrium. What’s happening now, is that demand is decreasing and the demand we do have is increasingly being funded with private debt.

You think that I want a command economy. I do not. I simply recognize that capitalism as you (and others) support will, if left unchecked, cannibalize itself. We see this today in the shrinking middle class, declining wages in the bottom half of the economy (including lower real minimum wages and in corporations with things like stock buy-backs.

I’m all for using embracing a capitalist system, just one that doesn’t eat itself to failure.

Though I have never taken a formally accredited course, I have audited several college classes including 2 macroeconomics courses and a serious of courses on banking. I have also dedicated years to understand these ideas on my own. That said, you’re not really claiming that college is the only place where people can gain knowledge and insights on economics? are you?

Or you can reduce your argument to ad hominem attacks…

Thank you for the sound financial advice, but I think I’m doing alright.

Then I guess I’m not a democrat (as I’ve been trying to tell you), I just think that the Dems are less destructive than the only other real choice, Republicans.

Every day more and more comes out about how corrupt Trump is. I think it’s pretty awful that you and others can bury your heads and pretend like it’s not happening. History will be the judge, but I’m betting that Republicans of this era and all the people that were duped in to following won’t be remembered fondly.

The breadth and depth if the irony of that statement is staggering.

As I stated, Trump has created fewer jobs than Obama did in his last 4 years, on average. That’s not to say the performance has been bad, just ironic given all the doom and gloom that Republicans cryed about during the Obama era.

Comparing Trump, the sole representative on the Republican side, to Biden who is one of many candidates on the Democratic side is silly and meaningless statistic meant to dupe the dim-witted.

I told you already, nominal growth is misleading, real wage growth has been declining since Trump took office, with the exception of a recent uptick.

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While I think the damage done, especially to the American farmer isn’t fully known, I think the success or failure of Trump’s move with respect to China is yet to be known.

I predict that the recent “Phase 1 deal” that was inked this week will be the only deal Trump makes, though he will represent this as a landmark deal, I think it’s positive effects will be short term, but the long term damage of tariffs will be felt for at least a decade or more.

Hilarious as the only reason this was possible is that the Republican-controlled Senate refused to appoint Obama judges leaving vacancies Trump was able to fill, including in the Supreme Court.

If the term “fake news” ever had any meaning, this is it.

Really it’s the millitary that deserves the credit here, but sure, point for Trump.

In the “let’s be fair” column, NG production has been increasing for years.

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Ironically, the same thing that made American energy viable again, the Saudi’s trying to manipulate the energy market in its own interest which in turn created the market incentives to exploit North American sources of energy, is exactly what is going to happen to US agriculture as South America will pick up the slack in Soy output that has declined thanks to tariffs. The same may happen in Pork, but I admit I’m not as knowledgeable here.

Ironically, Mexico’s rate of imigration has been declining as its economy has improved.

Trump has denied funding to the nations who are sending the most illegals and will instead attempt to spend even more money on a wall, which ironically will do little because most people that come here illegally, don’t walk over the border.

The only thing dumber than the name is the idea that space will, in the near future and beyond, will be used for anything other than satellites as it is now. It costs $2000 to put a lemon in space. You cannot defeat the laws of physics and unless an entirely new and (as yet unknown) revolutionary way is created to reach space, it is and will continue to be cost-prohibitive not to even mention that what could be achieved in space vs conventional methods, as dubious at best.

War in space is just asking to set all advanced nations in the world back 50 years.

An entirely reusable rocket that has a large capacity exceeding 1,000,000 kg to LEO, allowing large economies of scale.

You only pay the cost of the fuel. Cost per launch could fall as low as $300 per kg.

Jeff Bezos wants this to gradually move all heavy industry into orbit.

There are trade offs but also advantages to manufacturing in a micro g environment. The lack of gravity allows for more uniform molding, without intense, energy consming methods we employ down on Earth to get the same result.

If we can also build things out of resources already in space; Near Earth Asteroids that we mine and use 3D printers to make something out of, the cost margins get closer still.

additionally: