How to avoid the Dem/Media Hoax Virus Scare

Sorry, I don’t follow…What makes it better?

Total cases in the US

Total cases globally

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Can you explain to me how the article you posted can explain the obvious rise in cases?

  1. How many lived? We’ve had 8000 plus die from regular flu this year and not a peep.

The left has nothing left but to cheer on this virus, hoping for half a million deaths to damage the president. They are literally hoping lots of us (Americans) die for their political convenience.

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It’s not about growing # of cases ( the article outright predicts they would be more, even in China); it’s slowing of the growth factor.

Or what you see when you look at the numbers logarithmically:

Italy suffers more, because their population is older, and their culture encourages contact. When it and the other infected countries hit China’s point, they’ll reflect an overall downturn.

You’re kind of missing the point. It’s not the mortality rate by itself that is the issue of Corona Virus. It’s the speed with which it spreads can overwhelm the hospital system and in some cases making it impossible to treat everyone. In some cases people that might have lived die because there aren’t enough ventilators or respirators.

All this attention, and closings, and social distancing is about trying to “keep the curve flat”. Meaning the number of people being treated isn’t more than can be treated.

That is the issue. It’s not just the number of people that might die, though the rate at which people die on a per person basis is almost certainly much higher than the seasonal flu, but I admit, the jury is still out on that as we really don’t have an accurate count of how many people are really getting the virus and this almost certainly elevates the ratio of survivors to those that die.

The irony of it all is, unless the worst case comes to pass and there hospital system is over-run and people are dying in hospital hallways unable to get treatment, people like you will get to make the claim that everything that’s been done to slow the progression of Corona was just unnecessary over-reaction. Which of course will make people less willing to take measures next time.

In reality we’ll never be able to firmly prove that it was the drastic action that made a difference or not.

Here is the number of cases:

Here’s the number of deaths:

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seriously. Does that seem reasonable. We’re not worried about the mortality rate but the speed at which it is spread.

wth is going on with this country??

This virus is not a hoax, it is beyond partisan politics. Arguments and comparisons with Swine Flu, Ebola etc. are meaningless. What Obama did or did not do are irrelevant. The distinguishing characteristics are it’s highly contagious nature by non-symptomatic people and it’s ability to survive for 2 or 3 days on surfaces.

Consider:

  1. Governor Cuomo is not taking a machete to his state’s economy to hurt the President, in fact he is praising the President’s efforts and cooperation.

  2. Why is gold falling along with the Dow Jones? This is not normal. Highly leveraged banks and governments worldwide are in desperate need of cash to cover their positions. A global economic collapse of historic, generational consequences is a very real possibility.

  3. The globalist, open borders Europeans are not going to lockdown over a hoax.

  4. Where’s Nancy? Missing in action while Mitch McConnell is vowing to stay in town until massive funds are allocated for working Americans who are facing devastation. The President and Mitch have not become socialists, they are taking pragmatic steps to minimize the bleeding.

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What is it with you guys and misquoting me? WTH did I say:

We’re not worried about the mortality rate but the speed at which it is spread.”

Where did I say that?

I didn’t.

You compared Corana to the Flu and there are some very real differences, circumstances and outcomes between the two.

You pointed out that 8000 people die from flu, acctually, per-year, the number is much higher. I think the number you’re quoting is pediatric deaths, the actual number is more like 20,000-50,000 deaths per year from flu.

Flu season is hitting its stride right now in the US. So far, the CDC has estimated (based on weekly influenza surveillance data) that at least 12,000 people have died from influenza between Oct. 1, 2019 through Feb. 1, 2020, and the number of deaths may be as high as 30,000.

That said, there are just under 1 million staffed hospital beds in the US. The number of people that may require a bed thanks to Corona might range from 2.4 million to as high as 20 million. And of course, this does not include all the other reasons that people need hospital beds, including the seasonal Flu.

Now, if you and others want to call BS, fine, whatever. I will rejoice in being wrong and you can say I told you so later, but if the estimates are true and this thing get’s bad, even if the most optimistic estimates are going to be really bad, like 10 times worse.

Here is the US…

Even logarithmically this is not a good outcome so far.

Let’s compare to Italy trying to use a like for like comparison.

Now we both know there are a lot of variables in play that can change things for better or worse.

Now, I think the best indications of success or lack of come from the 100+ deaths, so I admit the sample size here in the US is too small at this point to draw any meaningful conclusions.

Let’s hope for the best.

um…right here.

Perhaps we’re having some trouble with reading comprehension?

I said:

“It’s not the mortality rate by itself that is the issue of Corona Virus”

The implied statement there is that there is more than just the mortality rate at issue.

Which is not the same as:

“We’re not worried about the mortality rate”

Nowhere in what I said did I use the word “worried”, implicity or explicitly.

Similarly, while we are concerned about the mortality rate of the flu, the difference between the flu and Covid-19 is that:

  1. The flu doesn’ cause medical resources to run short resulting in people dying simply because the medical equipment to treat them is being used by others and there is none available.

  2. Only about 30-45% of people make any attempt to inoculate themselves against the flu by getting a vaccine. This results, on average 900k more cases of the flu and 8000 more deaths as a result than might have happened if everyone got a vaccine.

  3. The mortality rate may be an order of magnitude higher with Covid than the Flu.

Speculatively. Over the very short term.

Agreed. Time will tell, but I think you might agree that failure to treat this as more dangerous than it might be is better than treating it as less dangerous than it really is.

From a friend and I think pretty wise.

Hard to say for sure, but here is my opinion on how or why this is hyped beyond what you would expect …

  1. China was not forthcoming with info and was secretive from the start. Being that it seems to have originated in Wuhan, site of their one and only bio-weapons lab, the secrecy of the Chinese government has fueled a fear that this is an “engineered” or “designed” pathogen that escaped containment somehow. It may not be THE bio-weapon the Chinese wanted to create, but something they were using to get there.

  2. For seasonal flu, we have a preventive vaccine. Whether you like vaccines or not, knowing you can get one if you need one is a comfort. With this coronavirus, there is no vaccine, no cure. Without the flu vaccine, I am pretty sure I would get the flu often. With that belief, it extends to a belief that I will likely be infected by this virus. That causes a lot of people to panic because they have absolutely no control. Basically, we are all control freaks.

  3. Because the real infection rates and death rates are unknown, it is a fear of the unknown that is driving panic. Figure it any way you like. To an average person, doing the math is stressful enough to make them go out and get an extra 24 pack of TP.

  4. We have a great medical system, and we are all used to a system keeping us alive when we should be dead. Just look at the number of handicap parking places, and they are full. There is a huge population that is immune-compromised. For example, we now have all these wonderful HIV drugs that keep a specific demographic alive. They are now at a higher risk, and they are in panic mode. Same for people on oxygen. We can keep people with weak hearts alive. Obesity and diabetes is a bigger problem now, but we have all this testing and drugs to keep it in control. Suddenly, those people are at risk, and scared. And that population is used to a testing routine, so they are demanding testing for this virus too.

  5. Daily briefings and stock market crashing and constant bombardment with the 24/7 news cycle is inescapable. If you watch any TV at all, it is all you hear. This much attention is not good. I am old enough to remember Vietnam. Remember the daily death count on the nightly news? It was the first war where non-combatants were receiving daily briefings on success and failure, and from that grew a reactionary protest movement. Same now, but it is a panic movement.

There are probably lots more reasons for the panic, but these are off the top of my head.

All those “opportunity costs” businesses avoided by offshoring to China? They were only deferred, and the bills have come due, with a surprisinf amount of intetest and penalties…

I haven’t taken a flu vaccine since I got out of the Army in 1968! When I was IN the Army, I got the flu every time I was forced to take the flu shots and was miserable for a few weeks every year. Since getting out, I’ve not had the flu even once. I suppose I am one of those who’s likely to get the Covid19 virus, but I’m not panicking about it nor am I stocking up on TP or hand-sanitizers. I have congestive heart failure, mild COPD, am overweight, have had 3 heart by-passes and had my Aortic valve replaced with a pig valve. On top of that, I have two artificial knee joints. I suppose I might be a prime candidate for this thing to kill me since I’m also right in the crux of the “at-risk” age group at 78 years old. I’m NOT going to change my lifestyle much. If it gets me, it GETS me. I’m more concerned that worrying about it will kill me than I am about the virus doing it to me, though. I wash frequently as a matter of course anyway, so I won’t be carrying on about doing THAT either. I have plenty of food in this house both in the pantry and in my freezers and I filled up with gas last week and only rarely drive anywhere so I should be set to sit this out, even if it lasts another month or so.

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Yes, I’d heard that. At this point, I don’t know enough to speculate either way, but I admit, that’s a startling coincidence at the very least.

EDIT: BTW, do you know where the “Spanish Flu” began? I’ll give you a hint, it wasn’t Spain.

Well-spoken. Agree completely.

And look at that, who knew, you’re pretty funny too, even in the midst of all this panic and lack of TP.

:rofl:

I can’t even look at my 401k, it makes me want to throw up. I remind myself, that at the bottom of this thing, that the shares I’ll purchase with my contributions will be a fraction of what I paid before this thing began and I’ll eventually make some of my money back.

I feel for the 75+ crowd though, watching what remains of your retirement shink by the day must be really, really stressful.

Yeah, I was still in diapers…

I responded selfishly thinking that was to me, but I realize now, probably not. That said I’m going to post anyway…

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Quix, just saying that invalidates the criticism. It’s not the whole picture, not even close.

Lines like these:
" communist Chinese state, which for more than three decades has been draining capital "

“we do not have at least a blueprint for rebuilding America’s manufacturing base

Are simply vain statements. It’s the words of someone whose only examined the issue from a security perspective, and has never bothered to learn why markets behave the way they do. Thomas Sowell, who should basically be mandatory reading by this point, has a field day tearing this logic apart just by pointing out what economic history on trade has been.

We outsourced because it was right do so. We benefited from the process, made our own economy to include our own manufacturing base, more effective. Manufacturing in America grew because we mounted this relationship.

As to what we did lose, there is no policy you can take up that changes why we don’t make something like clothing hangars here anymore, or don’t make the active ingredient for a drug which is distilled from a plant that grows in Asia in the first place.

The reason for this is that economies have developmental stages; China is still in a state that produces cheap, marginal-value goods, while we produce finished goods that require more capital and higher technical skill. Overtime we’ve been diversifying into Africa and parts of Southeast Asia as China itself rose in development. Thus, the “fix” was already in motion. Decentralizing of our supply chains was already taking place.

The markets are doing exactly what they should; promoting interdependence. Promoting comparative advantage.

And no, that’s not greed. Boiling it down to that is just evaluating things emotionally, not with history, or the full impact of the relationship in mind.

Hardly true, AS. It actually did NOT “grow.” It changed. Instead of producing material needs, we became the producers of FINISHED PRODUCTS, which require fewer workers. THAT’S why under previous administrations we had millions who weren’t employed productively and the labor participation rate sank like a stone in a cesspool.