Iowa Predictions


#1

“A bet is a tax on bull****” - Alex Tabborbak

Trump wins a narrow victory over Cruz. Rubio a distant third.

Bernie edges out Hillary by one or two points.


#2

I won’t bet against you.


#3

I expect at least one big suprise. Not a clue as to what it might be.

:popc1:


#4

A little too close for me to call. Lots of time and primaries to go yet. Some of the stragglers will throw in the towel.


#5

Narrow Cruz and Clinton victories.


#6

Voters don’t even begin showing up to caucus until 7 p.m. CST (I think)


#7

Rand Paul will surprise and vastly outperform the polls.


#8

I hope you are right Bigfoot. I believe he has not been able to gain traction, mainly because media didn’t give it to him, he CNN pushed Trump almost exclusively from day 1 for whatever their reasons are for supporting a Republican all of a sudden, and Bush was the Fox fave early one, though they have given far more even treatment across the GOP.

I have heard it explained on here, but it is difficult for me to understand why Paul isn’t more of a force in this election. He would certainly be able to out debate the Dems and he has broad appeal for a general election. My only guess is he doesn’t appeal to social conservatives, even though his position on many issues has been sound and reasonable.


#9

:zombie:

MY TWITTER FEED IS OFF THE HOOK. Within one minute my Trump Tweet got over a hundred likes and a hundred re-Tweets, and I’m a nobody. I am a non-entity in the Twitter world. Freekin’ AYE!!

I have to confess, on election nights, I watch CNN. Their technology counting votes is really the best. On election nights they make Fox look like a budget backroom Op.
I have to hold my nose as some of the CNN pundits spew out their crap, but they do have the best Tech.

Early indicators are for Trump, but Iowa is a wacky place. It ain’t over 'till it’s over.


#10

It was Cruz’s to lose and he may have done that with his piling on over Trump skipping the debate but I still think he will pull it out, on the Dem side I don’t care because neither can win the general unless a Statist Republican somehow wins the GOP Primary.


#11

Rubio’s showing at 20% right now is good news as far as I am concerned with about 40% votes counted. He also won a large financial district which is apparently fiscally conservative. If he does this well in Iowa where the entire chatter has been Cruz/Trump for a month, I think he is going to build support going forward. I believe he is the best option for the GOP if they want to win in a General Election.

The question now is, who benefits most when all the also-rans drop out?


#12

Iowa is known for making all predictions wrong. We may all be surprised.


#13

Cruz wins tonight.------ there you go!


#14

Someone added a zero to the 10,000 committed college students and 30,000 identified supporters committed to Paul.

I got this wrong, but at least I based it on data.


#15

I’m surprised that Rubio did as well as he did. He was within a couple of point of Trump. Statistically speaking, the top three were a fairly even spread or, at least, moreso than predicted. Perhaps, that’s our surprise for this one.


#16

It’s interesting because last time we had a strong top 3 as well.

The Rubio surge was being promoted by the establishment, so I didn’t take it seriously. But it happened to be real.


#17

Rubio is the star of the establishment and FOX News.


#18

To me Rubio is the only electable GOP candidate who has a shot assuming Clinton wins if Bernie somehow wins the Dem position than I believe others could win as well. Only these three top finishers should be left running and maybe Carson simply because he was the leader in polls a couple of months ago even that is a stretch at this point. Maybe I am wrong, but Cruz just doesn’t look the part as potential president, though he is well spoken and mentally sharp. My question is and will remain, does he have enough broad appeal to win a general election?

Establishment or not isn’t a concern for myself being from Canada, but seeing a strong, fiscal conservative U.S president who will influence the West back to a great place economically and socially is. I am not a big social conservative in the manner many define, but I am a supporter of the constitution of the U.S which is the envy of the world, THAT is social conservatism in my books. Rubio almost took second place, his surge is real and I assume he will receive a jolt in his campaign funding. He is young, well spoken, passionate and would be an excellent debater vs Clinton and he has experienced poverty and has a legitimate “everyman” history.

One final point here, if the Republican nominee doesn’t care about fiscal responsibility moving forward he might as well just save America some time and bow out.


#19

Fox and those who support him are probably supporting the best Republican chance at winning in 2016. When I first started following the U.S political scene I immediately found Rand Paul and Marco Rubio appealing based on their words and passion. I had no idea about establishment candidates, RINO and other various terms.


#20

[quote=“John_Blutarski, post:17, topic:48186”]
Rubio is the star of the establishment and FOX News.
[/quote]I myself am for Cruz. But Rubio is also articulate and presents well.