Is There A Silver Lining In The Polls For Romney?


#1

#2

Is there any TRUTH in a single poll out there?


#3

Actually if the polls are accurate it shows that Obama is rapidly losing momentum! Plus all these MSM polls besides for Rasmussen base their readings on the 08 Obama models. We know that Obama is NOT caring about the independents in this race. He is enraging his liberal base to hate conservatives and paint Mitt Romney as the epicenter of the types of people that are the problem! That will get liberals not independents to the polls!

For every time Obama walks into a small business, and the business owner endorses him or has some type of connection to the President (directly or indirectly). That business loses customers!!! Ever wonder why?


#4

I’ve said before that the polls are intentionally being skewed through sample manipulation and a proliferation of secondary biased polls which are used to skew the RCP average. A new site takes a look at the underlying data in these polls and transforms them using the Rasmussen sampling method (2008 + 2010 electorate) and lo and behold…the UN-Skewed polls tell a different story about the real state of the election. Hopefully Rasmussen remains as accurate as he has been!
Check it out here:
UnSkewed Polls – erasing the bias to show an accurate picture of politics

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Maybe there is a silver lining!


#5

The latest Fox News poll has Obama leading by 7 in both Ohio and Virginia (WaPo out today has it widening to 8 in OH).

I don’t have a clue how the website you’re talking about arrives at those numbers. How can they modify them using Rasmussen’s sampling methods? You mean like never calling cell phones? But some information on Rasmussen’s accuracy during the 2010 elections can be found here:

The 105 polls released in Senate and gubernatorial races by Rasmussen Reports and its subsidiary, Pulse Opinion Research, missed the final margin between the candidates by 5.8 points, a considerably higher figure than that achieved by most other pollsters. Some 13 of its polls missed by 10 or more points, including one in the Hawaii Senate race that missed the final margin between the candidates by 40 points, the largest error ever recorded in a general election in FiveThirtyEight’s database, which includes all polls conducted since 1998.

Moreover, Rasmussen’s polls were quite biased, overestimating the standing of the Republican candidate by almost 4 points on average. In just 12 cases, Rasmussen’s polls overestimated the margin for the Democrat by 3 or more points. But it did so for the Republican candidate in 55 cases — that is, in more than half of the polls that it issued.

If one focused solely on the final poll issued by Rasmussen Reports or Pulse Opinion Research in each state — rather than including all polls within the three-week interval — it would not have made much difference. Their average error would be 5.7 points rather than 5.8, and their average bias 3.8 points rather than 3.9.

Nor did it make much difference whether the polls were branded as Rasmussen Reports surveys, or instead, were commissioned for Fox News by its subsidiary Pulse Opinion Research. (Both sets of surveys used an essentially identical methodology.) Polls branded as Rasmussen Reports missed by an average of 5.9 points and had a 3.9 point bias. The polls it commissioned on behalf of Fox News had a 5.1 point error, and a 3.6 point bias.

Rasmussen’s polls have come under heavy criticism throughout this election cycle, including from FiveThirtyEight. We have critiqued the firm for its cavalier attitude toward polling convention. Rasmussen, for instance, generally conducts all of its interviews during a single, 4-hour window; speaks with the first person it reaches on the phone rather than using a random selection process; does not call cellphones; does not call back respondents whom it misses initially; and uses a computer script rather than live interviewers to conduct its surveys. These are cost-saving measures which contribute to very low response rates and may lead to biased samples.

Rasmussen also weights their surveys based on preordained assumptions about the party identification of voters in each state, a relatively unusual practice that many polling firms consider dubious since party identification (unlike characteristics like age and gender) is often quite fluid.

Rasmussen’s polls — after a poor debut in 2000 in which they picked the wrong winner in 7 key states in that year’s Presidential race — nevertheless had performed quite strongly in in 2004 and 2006. And they were about average in 2008. But their polls were poor this year.

The discrepancies between Rasmussen Reports polls and those issued by other companies were apparent from virtually the first day that Barack Obama took office. Rasmussen showed Barack Obama’s disapproval rating at 36 percent, for instance, just a week after his inauguration, at a point when no other pollster had that figure higher than 20 percent.

Rasmussen Reports has rarely provided substantive responses to criticisms about its methodology. At one point, Scott Rasmussen, president of the company, suggested that the differences it showed were due to its use of a likely voter model. A FiveThirtyEight analysis, however, revealed that its bias was at least as strong in polls conducted among all adults, before any model of voting likelihood had been applied.

Rasmussen Polls Were Biased and Inaccurate; Quinnipiac, SurveyUSA Performed Strongly - NYTimes.com


#6

We’re not talking Senate or Gubenatorial state polls…we’re talking NATIONAL PRESIDENTIAL polls and Rasmussen was TIED for #1 with Pew in the 2008 election accuracy and within 1% of the 2004 result:
"
A recent case in point is what has happened to Scott Rasmussen, an independent pollster we both work with, who has an unchallenged record for both integrity and accuracy. Mr. Rasmussen correctly predicted the 2004 and 2008 presidential races within a percent…"
Patrick Caddell and Douglas E. Schoen: Don’t Shoot the Pollster - WSJ.com

I’m not particularly interested in what the Times has to say about Rasmussen…might as well ask CodePink. Interesting that Silver claims Fox News/Pulse Opinion uses the same methodology as Rasmussen. They don’t as your own posted Fox report is 6 points more favorable than Rasmussen to Obama. Silver is wrong and that will be evident on election day… no matter who wins…Rasmussen will have it very nearly right.


#7

Here’s another prediction… the first debate is next Wednesday. Romney is gonna clean Obama’s clock, because he will be PREPARED and Obama’s narcissism will prevent him from adequately doing the same.


#8

Okay, I get it.

What that website does is take ordinary polls and remove a large number of Democratic respondents from each sample. They claim (based on a recent Rasmussen poll) that Republicans make up a larger percentage of the country and are therefore being undersampled, so you remove some Democratis and voila, Romney is winning.

But even Rasmussen, whose poll data is what everything on that website is based on, shows Romney losing, not winning by 7 points.

I think this is very emblematic of where the American right is at this stage of the game… denial being the first stage of grief.


#9

I think the polls are pretty accurate. What they show is the GOP just isn’t excited about Romney. Lets face it when was the last time you worked hard out in the hot sun and were excited to finish and have that room temperature beer?


#10

You’re dreaming. Romney will stay on topic, and answer succinctly, and adequately. Obama will go off topic, point out how all those nasty, evil Republicans kept him from achieving all his marvelous plans, and Lehrer will not only allow it, but pronounce him the ‘winner’.


#11

I agree that the un-skewed data is further to the right than Rasmussen…I don’t expect anyone to rely on those polling numbers. The POINT was that the original polls are JUST as skewed due to sample manipulation AND that they then skew the ALL POLL averages posted by RCP.
You are correct that the daily Rasmussen shows a 1% edge for Obama today. Within the margin of error AND that has been the case for BOTH candidates winning margins in Rasmussen for weeks now. This will be VERY close and the skewed polling is designed to discourage republicans and depress the turnout and work for Romney.


#12

[quote=“Cam, post:11, topic:36283”]
I agree that the un-skewed data is further to the right than Rasmussen…I don’t expect anyone to rely on those polling numbers. The POINT was that the original polls are JUST as skewed due to sample manipulation AND that they then skew the ALL POLL averages posted by RCP.
You are correct that the daily Rasmussen shows a 1% edge for Obama today. Within the margin of error AND that has been the case for BOTH candidates winning margins in Rasmussen for weeks now. This will be VERY close and the skewed polling is designed to discourage republicans and depress the turnout and work for Romney.
[/quote]I don’t think it will be all that close. I think Romney SHOULD run away with it, provided the Pubbies quit marginalizing social conservatives. Romney needs as many of us, as he can get.


#13

We shall see. The Leher factor is the big unknown. I’m sure Romney already is practicing snappy comebacks for when Obama blames Reps for his problems.


#14

Yeah, because Mitt Romney is known for being a charismatic speaker who always readily answers questions and would never embarrass himself on stage. Right?

Except for “betcha $10,000,” “middle-income is $200,000 to $250,000,” “corporations are people,” “I’m also unemployed,” “Obama apologized for embassy bombings,” “I will repeal Obamacare, no I won’t, yes I will, no I won’t…” “I don’t support the individual mandate except it’s the best thing ever,” “sorry I can’t name any loopholes I’ll close,” “I don’t know how much I pay in taxes,” “47% of you are lazy moochers”, and all the other ways he’s found over the last year to stick his foot in his mouth in new and creative ways.


#15

Guess you weren’t watching him OWN Gingrich in the Florida debates.
And let’s not forget gafftastic Obama either. Here’s a list of his Obamateurisms of the week this year (by popular choice over at Hot Air.com). I’m betting “bumps in the road” trumps “noise” this week. :grin:

Previous weekly “winners” in 2012:

No time to meet with Netanyahu, makes time for the Pimp with a Limp radio show
Ordering platform change after criticism over God, Jerusalem
Sends form letters to families of SEALs KIA, personal letter to family of rapper Heavy D
“I don’t think you or anybody who’s been watching the campaign would say that in any way we have tried to divide the country.”
Hiding from WH press corps while giving interviews to People and Entertainment Tonight
Asks supporters to find businesses to support his “you didn’t build that” argument
“Because we’re leading around the world, people have a new attitude toward America. There’s more confidence in our leadership. We see it everywhere we go.”
“Just like we’ve tried their plan, we tried our plan — and it worked.”
“If you’ve got a business, you didn’t build that. Somebody else made that happen.”
“But the nature of this office is also to tell a story to the American people…”
Pitches amnesty policy at naturalization ceremony of people who entered legally
Removing silverware from tables before speaking to Hispanic voters
Scolds American Crossroads for lack of transparency … on same day Obama asserted executive privilege in Fast & Furious probe
“The private sector is doing fine“
Declares Lech Walesa “too political” to accept award, gives another to Dolores Huerta, chair of Democratic Socialists of America
“Polish death camp“
“[T]hose of us who have spent time in the real world . . .”
Adds himself into presidential histories of his predecessors, screws up JFK quote
“When I think about, ah, those soldiers or airmen or Marines, sailors, who are out there fighting on my behalf …”
Includes Nazi collaborator/Hitler admirer in proclamation for Jewish American Heritage Month
Obamas griped that the American public just did not appreciate their exceptional leader
Gets annoyed when asked about number of vacations, doesn’t answer question
“I’m confident that the Supreme Court will not take what would be an unprecedented, extraordinary step of overturning a law that was passed by a strong majority of a democratically elected Congress.”
“This is my last election. After my election I have more flexibility.”
Blames Fox News for his unpopularity because “they hear Obama is a Muslim 24/7, and it begins to seep in”
Attacks Limbaugh while remaining silent on Maher contribution to his super-PAC
Says “when the chips are down, I have Israel’s back,” WH claims it’s not a military doctrine
Apology to Karzai “calmed things down“
Uses Boeing plant in SC to cheer manufacturing after his NLRB tried to shut it down
Emphasizes graduation rates in SOTU, cuts DC voucher program that nearly doubled grad rates
“Well, it turns out our Founders designed a system that makes it more difficult to bring about change that I would like sometimes.”
Finds claim of unemployment “interesting” because he is getting “the word” that woman’s husband should have no trouble finding work
Hails Roe as essential to allow “our daughters … to fulfill their dreams“
Shuts down DisneyWorld in order to promote tourism
“He didn’t want to take pictures with any more soldiers; he was complaining about it[.]
Famous opponent of signing statements issues one covering 17 provisions of bill he signed

Previous Obamateurisms of the Year:

Giving 2 minutes of “shout-outs” before getting to the Fort Hood shooting (2009)
Obama leaves Clinton at press conference podium on tax deal to attend Christmas party (2010)
“I would put our legislative and foreign policy accomplishments in our first two years against any president— with the possible exceptions of Johnson, F.D.R., and Lincoln.” (2011)

#16

Attack Obama all you want… just saying that Romney is hardly known for his tact and charisma.

I don’t expect anything great from Obama either, but Romney is the one who needs it.


#17

Obama isn’t much of an extemporaneous speaker and I expect that it will be hard for Romney to not, at least, be his equal in the debates. And I’d think it will be the debates which sway that last 5-6% who remain undecided. The polls do not seem to comport with the reality of conditions in the country today; I expect the election is much closer than that. I even expect that Romney has an advantage, because it appears there’s nothing more silent than a former Obama supporter.


#18

I guess you’re not from the south, “rodeo cool” beer isn’t that uncommon


#19

You’re in danger of slipping into a conspiratorial mindset if you allow yourself to make assumptions like that. With Romney a net negative in favorability rating, it’s hardly necessary for the entire polling industry to conspire against him to keep Republicans from rushing to the polls. He’s never been a candidate they were enthusiastic about in the first place, and his campaign has focused on attacking Obama instead of building himself up. By his own admission, he’s not even trying to appeal to at least half the country.

The Rasmussen poll that always shows the race close is different from all other polls in that it’s a tracking poll. Instead of surveying people at random, it surveys the same group of people every day. Tracking polls, IIRC, are meant to measure trends, not levels. I’m not sure why it’s even included in the RCP average.


#20

Most of the polls have between 7 and 11% advantage in turnout for democrats, do you honestly think that will be the turnout on election day?