I’m thoroughly saturated with the outrageous statements of the far left, MSM, democrat politicans, globalists, never-Trumpers and idiotic analysis many on the left and the right. I’m limiting my daily news input to the President’s taskforce briefings and Steve Bannon’s “War Room Pandemic”. Bannon is surprisingly non-partisan and features medical and financial experts from around the world.
Anyway, I’ve become curious about the various predictive models. The first one is by the University of Washington. This is the one Dr. Brix says is similar to the one she uses. It is updated daily and can be set to national or state by state results. For example, the New Mexico deaths are expected to peak on April 21st and decrease to essentially zero by June 1st. Also things like ICU beds needed and available, graphs etc.
A second interactive online app is done by the University of Basel. It allows you to select the country and tinker with eight different inputs and it displays graphical projected results.
If you are curious about the nuts and bolts of the evolution of virulence and other populations I highly recommend this book:
Evolutionary Dynamics by Martin A. Nowak
This is one notch above being a “popular science” book but if you remember half of what you should have learned in a college level calculus course you will have no problem reading this. It is filled with simple examples most of which can be worked through with pencil and paper, many explanatory diagrams.