Trump is the underdog again. The polls were pretty accurate in 2016. Clinton under performed by only 1.5%. The big issue was that no one was even polling Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin or Minnesota. You had tons of polls out in Arizona and Texas hoping for a Clinton upset, but no one even bothered to poll Minnesota in the month of November.
I honestly don’t know if Trump is holding back or following bad advise. I’ve seen him get led into bad decisions lately(lock down, Bible photo op), so I’m not convinced he’s following his instincts any more.
If he’s just bidding time and comes roaring out with a choice between a masked socially distant, isolated “new normal” of eternal four walls, versus living a life, he should do well. But if Trump slides into “Yes Honey” on the masks, and shutting down parks and beaches, he’ll lose - and he’ll deserve to lose. You can’t drop the ball on the most life altering move in a generation and expect to come out on the other side.
People are always going to vote for the full strength item over the watered down version. If it’s full lockdown Biden versus tepid kind of keep some stuff open Trump, Biden will win. If it’s live your life Trump, versus live your life in a fetal position Biden, Trump will win.