Britain needs another Churchill.
Given how closed Iran’s society is, what makes you think they DON’T already have a nuke, AS?
They don’t need one. They know we could detect if they had one, and actually having one would only antagonize us. Threatening to build one is enough to leverage a bargaining chip.
They already have an effective conventional deterrent: the Strait of Hormuz. Mining that would cripple the world economy.
What’s more, their military is significantly better than the Arabs. If they make the whole region go nuclear, they lose that advantage.
And right now, they’re winning the proxy war with the Saudis and UAE. Pretty much everywhere. Syria, Yemen, Iraq, even the “diplomatic” one in Qatar. Exporting this war is impoverishing their people, but that’s second fiddle to their idea of (Shia) revolution, and building a hegemony for themselves in the Middle east.
LOL. You have more confidence in our ability to “detect” their nukes than I do–and I used to BE part of the American intel community.
You can detect nuclear radiation from space, we can detect how much it’s being enriched (thus, weapons grade vs power), and there is no way to hide performing Nuclear test fires.
He was a war-time kinda’ guy . . . didn’t do so well in government during peace time.
Nevertheless, I agree with you that his unique conservative approach would serve the country well . . . even now in peace time.
General Lemay tried to argue the same thing about the Cuban Missile Crisis; He was wrong.
And he got it wrong for the same reason Chamberlain got it wrong; he didn’t know the enemy.
We know what the North Koreans are, we know what they are, and why they’re doing the things they are.
None of it points to a war; all of it points to trolling and a decrepit regime, waiving its rusty sword, to ward off an invasion it fears will destroy it.
Mechanical logic need not apply; read the actual enemy, and the actual situation.
Actually NOT. For all we know, Iran has 100 un-test-fired nukes in one of their several deeply-underground “research” facilities. Without a snitch, we’d have NO WAY of knowing about them because we CANNOT “detect” radiation that’s located more than about 30 feet underground and some of THEIR facilities are multiples of that depth.
Right, and the U.S. would let them get away with it?.. [/rhetorical]
Actually yes; you can detect Uranium enrichment from a distance. That’s how Israel keeps track of Iran’s program.
That, and human intelligence that upped its game about 10 years ago.
We wouldn’t let them get away with with a nuke firing. Deterrent is a deterrent, because it’s a plausible threat. Just like the North Korean artillery pointed at Seoul.
“Getting away with it”, isn’t the point. It’s that they could do it before we could stop them.
We can “detect uranium enrichment from a distance” but can’t see them laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz??? Where do you GET this stuff?
? No, I’m saying they would have dispersed them, before we could respond.
They’re right there (it’s right on their coastline), we’re typically not. And they’re plenty of ways for them to lay mines covertly.
Yeah, the money men will ignore and/or pay Iran off as long as that is the cheapest option. If Iran actually closes the Straight of Hormuz? The money men will not be amused, and we’re liable to see just how good Iran’s military is… (spoiler alert: not good enough).
I mean, you can throw gays off of buildings, oppress women, saber-rattle at Israel, and muscle your neighbors, and you’ll get a strongly worded diplomatic note, a few politicians “condemning” your actions, and fifteen seconds of airtime on the nightly news. Close down one of (if not THE) most important trade routes and interrupt the flow of money? Your trial will be swift, and you’re going down for crimes against humanity.
Regarding this afternoon’s announcement of a meeting with Trump sought by UN (One Hung Low) - I think One Hung Low just MIGHT be witnessing the pitifully weak economy of his country crumbling because of the harshest sanctions ever placed on a country. He just MIGHT understand the reality that if that happens, his regime will not survive. Above all else, he wants to survive - personally survive - and remain the country’s dictator.
Most importantly, this afternoon’s announcement of One Hung Low wanting to meet with Trump to discuss denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula on Trump’s terms - no further testing by NK and with the US and South Korea free to continue joint military preparedness/war games - MIGHT just be yet another of a long history of ploys by NK to receive goodies from the US and buy time to further their nuke development.
On the other hand. It just MIGHT be that he understands Trump is not Bill Clinton, George Bush or Barack Obama. It just MIGHT be that he KNOWS Trump will blow his ass up before he is able to operationalize the delivery of his nukes or sell them to other hostile nations - like Iran.
We shall see.
Trump isn’t going to get rolled like Clinton or kick the can down the road like Obama. If it turns out to be just another stalling tactic by Rocketman, Trump will up the sanctions, perhaps shoot down test launches as they leave the ground, possibly a blockade or no-fly zone declaration. A full escalation by Kim would lead to thousands of American and South Korean casualties but suicide for Kim and he knows it.
Rocketman’s pursuit of nuclear weapons is not wholly without a rational motive. South Korea and the UN/US are still in a technical state of war with the North. He sees the possession of a credible nuclear force as a guarantee for the continuation of his regime. There is a small chance that a guarantee of North Korean sovereignty would convince him to denuclearize. Barack Obama has made this almost impossible by ignoring Russian aggression against Ukraine despite assurances from the U.S., U.K. and Russia for their sovereignty. They gave up 1700 nuclear warheads for these assurances. Even if Kim were to trust Trump why would he not expect a future American administration not to throw him under the bus too?