Real Clear politics election watch


#1

Here’s the link. RealClearPolitics - 2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House

Feel free to discuss, but be sure to check how things are looking beforehand. Not looking good for Trump right now…

Currently: electoral predictions
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[TD=“class: seats”]202

Clinton/Kaine

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[TD=“align: center”]Toss Ups
**182 **

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[TD=“class: party”]Trump/Pence

154

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#2

Thanks DNeck - one issue regarding the poll that leaps off the page is the fact it shows Texas as “leaning” to Clinton. I know something of Texas politics and, while most Texans would have much preferred Cruz over Trump, there is simply no way Clinton wins this 2nd Amendment state’s 38 electoral votes.

That point made, I think it clear Trump is in trouble. Post convention polls consistently reveal that not only did Clinton get her expected convention bump, but more importantly the polls showed Trump actually losing points - and those points being lost by Trump are most likely among Independents who are probably becoming increasingly nervous about Trump’s candidacy.

It is coming down to the point in the race when Independents and the undecided are beginning to pay attention to the election politics. Soon, many of these people will begin solidifying their selection. If Trump continues to self destruct and/or can’t show a significant uptick in his relative poll numbers by Labor Day then, barring an unforeseen calamity for Clinton, this race could be all but over - IMO.

A calamity for Clinton could come in the form of damning emails being dumped by WikiLeaks or Trump blowing her out in the debates - debates in which I think Trump blowing himself out is more likely.

Elections have been known to turn on a dime - it’s not inconceivable Trump could turn it around, but thus far his campaign has showcased his propensity to be a gaff machine,

And, yes I’m upset. I’m upset with Trump and I’m completely pissed at those primary voters who failed to see this coming even though his entire primary campaign was based on his often outrageous commentary and demeanor during the debates and throughout the primary campaign.

It’s almost comical - Republican voters search high and low for a candidate to defeat a completely unfit, totally vulnerable/beatable Hillary Clinton and from a list of 17 candidates select the one candidate who, at least to this point and in the eyes of a majority of those polled, is being judged even more unfit than his opponent.

As I have continually stated, it is impossible to UNDERESTIMATE the wisdom of this nation’s electorate.


#3

This one is much better:


#4

“Nate Silver” (538) is a brand that we are reflexively supposed to respect because he’s regularly thrown in our face. We are to assume he is impartial and accurate since he is a “trusted brand”.

He gave Trump a 2 to 5% chance of winning the nomination.

He missed Brexit and has been on a losing streak. I’ve seen interviews with the guy, a Gen-Xer a$$hat replete with the skinny jeans and tie.

He’s one of those “We are the World and other liberal clap-trap” meme spewers.

One case and … The Reason Why:

How I Acted Like A Pundit And Screwed Up On Donald Trump
How I Acted Like A Pundit And Screwed Up On Donald Trump | FiveThirtyEight

I can pull any number of various ‘polls’ … (even out of my butt) that show what I want everyone to see!
These are ‘Push Polls’ folks … that’s all they are!

Here’s one from today that I favor and it’s from a fanatical/liberal newspaper!

USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak tracking poll (T: 45.3% / H:43.1%)
How the USC/L.A. Times Daybreak tracking poll works - LA Times


#5

I am on a Dim news letter, I signed up for it. They are here in Texas from Co and DC, their job is to turn Texas Blue. They are well funded, the HQ is here in San Antonio and they got money to burn and don’t mind smellin smoke, they have been here about 5+ years.

My observation is they have made great strides, enough, dunno, but reading the news letter they think and Hillery has said they WILL take Texas.

When I moved here, my county was recognized as one of the most conservative in Texas. TRUST ME, It ain’t no more, times have changed a LOT in my almost 6 years. I was a member of the Cty GOP and the GOP Women’s org, I attended 100% of all meetings and events. I have barely been to a meeting of any kind in the past year or so. Attendance has gone down to the point they rarely have a quorum any more.

So what has happened. We have a heavy hitter GOP person who lives here (I have written about my early connection to an insider in other threads), well they took over and the local GOP no longer has elections, we have appointments and if you don’t walk the line to the GOP heavy you go no place, the GOP is not long a GOP meeting but rather a small social group who talk ANYTHING BUT Politics, in fact Politics is NOT allowed. You mention Obama’s name you BETTER be saying something nice or you will be called in and told we do not speak ill of Obama or Hillery.

The GOP is is run by back room secret so called committee, who ever they are???

If this is any indication of what is going on in the state, we may be facing some problems.

REMEMBER, WHITEY is in the minority in Texas!


#6

I “Thanked You” for that post 17Oaks but … so help me, I don’t know why!:coffee_spray:


#7

Don, you’ve lived in Texas longer than I and likely have more local insight into political leanings than I. Nationally, the Right has been on a mission of self destruction for a long time. I have stated in other threads that I do not think America is any longer a center-right nation. Nationally speaking, I stand by that assessment. As for Texas - the 2nd amendment heritage runs very deep statewide. It is conceivable that is the political piece that keeps Texas red.

In another thread I asked people what they would do if offered a do-over in selecting a Repub candidate to go up against Clinton. Trump voters must be in hiding; the last time I checked few if any were standing firm with Trump.

Without a “helpful” calamity, Trump might prove to be the one choice we had who wouldn’t defeat Clinton.

What an unbelievable mess. Confronted with a failed president who pays ransom money and an unindicted career criminal/liar who knowingly exposes state secrets and it appears we have a good shot at losing in November.

If we do lose in November, we will lose a hell of a lot more than just an election. The country/demographics/courts will change to the point we will become Europe - and it will happen quickly.


#8

Just a bump for this. New numbers are worse than the original post’s.

This isn’t good folks.


#9

I am convinced of two things.

First, Trump is losing this race because of Trump the man and not on the basis of his position (as near as we can determine his position) on most issues.

Second, without a “Hail Mary” at either the debates or in the form of a Clinton foundation/WikiLeaks bombshell, or both, the race for president is pretty much over - IMO. I just hope the down ballot Republican/Conservative candidates don’t get blown out and Congress ending up in control of the Left. The word “catastrophic” would not adequately express the lasting damage that would signal.

Hillary “unchained” is a frightening thought.


#10

Our only hope is there is more Trump supporters than the polling picks up because most do not want to be open about supporting him for fear of the Radical Muslim…errr Dimocrat Extremists. I don’t even see Trump signs around town or bumper stickers.


#11

It is possible some are intimidated and don’t wish to be identified as Trump supporters, but I really doubt the numbers involved move the needle very much.

Trump has made so many errors in this campaign one would need a full-time employee to keep track and catalogue said errors.

Other than his propensity to self destruct, I think his most critical mistake has been his lack of a nation-wide campaign organization. That would include precinct workers, fundraising and targeted media ads. He has relatively few supporters on the ground in most states. It appeared that early on in the campaign he decided that he could judge his support by the large turnout for his events, and it appears that mindset has largely continued, at least until very recently. TV ads in battleground states only began a week ago last Friday.

IMHO - Trump’s demeanor throughout the primaries and continued political ineptitude, coupled with his very limited ability to clearly express his position, has likely turned off many undecided voters to the extent they are tuning him out.

As always, I could be wrong. But, that’s the way the race is shaping up in my mind.


#12

I am afraid you are more right than wrong, but I am just holding on to holding on to optimism by a thread…


#13

Me, too. A thread is about it. But, then again - no one really knows for sure how this worm wrestle will end up in November.

By the way, I, too have yet to see a single Trump bumper sticker or sign.


#14

I’ve seen people wearing Trump shirts and cars with Trump stickers here in Florida. The Dems are running tied at the hip with Obama, however, which is a bad sign. They would never have done that four years ago unless they were in a safe congressional district. This state is turing blue very quickly because of the people who migrate here from the North and bring their politics with them.


#15

sendgop - I’m considering Gizmoe as a write-in. I wonder if he could get the required 15% it takes to get him on stage for the debates if we registered him on the Underdog Party ticket. LMAO!!


#16

There are some of you that Truly exasperate me! 8)

I ‘Thought’ that I had settled the Gloom and Doom poll watchers on here but … apparently, I was short sighted?:dramaqueen:

How many ‘polls’ would you need for me to find for you that will put your minds at ease?

Here, let’s start with this one:

Secretly Supporting Trump - Anonymous Poll Shows Donald Trump Ahead By YUGE Margin

> Secretly Supporting Trump - Anonymous Poll Shows Donald Trump Ahead, 64% - 36% - Fox & Friends

Secretly Supporting Trump - Anonymous Poll Shows Donald Trump Ahead By YUGE Margin

Let me ask a simple question?
If the media is dominated entirely by Leftists Hillary supporters and the majority of the polls are dominated by the same type of folks … What would you expect these push polls to say?

Trump is Killing our hero?

Leave the polls alone!

http://i65.tinypic.com/saumnt.jpg


#17

Honestly many of you people surprise & amaze me. We disagree on almost everything while still considering ourselves conservatives. I say almost everything. Probably the 1 single thing that we all pretty much agree with is that the media is liberal. As a matter of fact I have never heard even once someone say that anything said by any media source was “to conservative”. So do we say that it’s all liberal & not really agree with it? Do you guys believe that a left leaning media is going to come out saying “Our damaged candidate is getting her butt kicked in the poles”? If you were a liberal would you come out & announce that? Well if you did, what would you think might happen? I’ll tell you what I would think if I were a liberal voter. Hillary is a crook & it looks like she is going to lose anyway so why should I bother voting? That’s what I would think if I were liberal. So the media is going out of their way to make Hillary look like a strong candidate hoping to get every vote they can. If you just look at the headlines of negative press against Trump & Hillary it becomes obvious. Hell if Trump farts in private it would get more negative press than if Hillary shot someone in Time Square. (Plus the Trump farting in private would probably be a made up story).
.
So…Did you know that the poles showing Hillary leading Trump have a very small sample base? Many are only 100 people. Did you know that Trump was leading in those poles until they added more Dems to them? Did you know that people are showing up to Trump rallies by more than a 10 to 1 ratio than those showing up at Hillary’s rallies (at lot more than 10 to 1)? Did you know that in a pole taken with 100,000 people Trump had 67% of the vote? Silliessis is right & you can check on it by going to U-Tube. If this is an honest election Trump is going to win.


#18

Except, Fox News has reported Hillary being in the lead. So has Breitbart.

> So…Did you know that the poles showing Hillary leading Trump have a very small sample base? Many are only 100 people. Did you know that Trump was leading in those poles until they added more Dems to them? Did you know that people are showing up to Trump rallies by more than a 10 to 1 ratio than those showing up at Hillary’s rallies

Ron Paul had larger rallies in 2012 then the leading candidates of either party.

It just shows devotion, not the level of support.


#19

Wanted to emphasize this.


#20

> Other than his propensity to self destruct, I think his most critical mistake has been his lack of a nation-wide campaign organization. That would include precinct workers, fundraising and targeted media ads. He has relatively few supporters on the ground in most states. It appeared that early on in the campaign he decided that he could judge his support by the large turnout for his events, and it appears that mindset has largely continued, at least until very recently. TV ads in battleground states only began a week ago last Friday.

This is a key point. Trump has no idea what it takes to win a general election. You need a ground game to get your voters out and to the polls. You have to do the phone work and the ground work. You need organization, like the Democrats have with institutions like the African-American churches. They held events like “Souls to the Polls” that got Black voters registered and voting. It was given considerable news coverage on the local TV stations, which like their national counterparts, are solidly for the Democrats. Organization is what Obama had, and we don’t. Trump is and acts like a TV personality. He thinks that ratings will get him elected. It won’t.

> Honestly many of you people surprise & amaze me. We disagree on almost everything while still considering ourselves conservatives.

This has become our curse. We are in the same position as the Democrats were in the 1980s. They were divided between the old traditional liberal Democrats, mixed in with a few conservatives, like Zel Miller, and the socialist Democrats who would become their future. Now we are divided between those who support Ted Cruz, who want everything with no compromises, and those of us who believe that Cruz, like Barry Goldwater in 1964, is unelectable. I would have voted for Cruz in the general election had he won the nomination, and I voted for him in Florida primary because there was no other viable choice, but I’m not a Cruz person in general. His demeanor is too harsh and divisive. He’s a good Texas senator, but his act will not sell on a nationwide basis.

Trump is the perfect storm. He is the one candidate who had the best chance of losing to Hillary, and he has not disappointed the news media and the Hillary supporters. He treats the election the way he does his business. He’s the big boss who has the power to run things. He treats those, who are competent and loyal to him, very well. His employees admire him. He has succeeded in many ways, but that formula does not work in elective politics. He can’t control the voters the way he can control his employees. He can’t say stupid stuff in public and get away with it. He can’t criticize a handicaped reporter, a Muslem Gold Star Mother or judge with an Hispanic background in public the way he can make comments about them in the boardroom. Stuff like that, which gets him nowhere, has killed his campaign.

For the “Never Trumpers” I get it, but you need to get it too. The time has come to try to hold on to our majorities in the House and Senate. If you turn off our voters to point when they don’t turn out to vote, we will lose everything. Think back to 1964 when Johnson crushed Goldwater and 2008 when Obama crushed McCain. Do you want a replay of that in the House and Senate? Please, don’t do any more erode our base.