Real Clear politics election watch


#21

There is only one poll that I care about and it is that of the closing one Election Day.


#22

The polls have not been wrong about the presidential race since 1948.


#23

Actually untrue. They picked Kerry over Bush in 2004 in Ohio…FAIL. They picked Gore over Bush in 2000…FAIL. They had Reagan behind by 13 points in September of 1980…FAIL.


#24

I was talking about the overall election results.


#25

Just my view of what I think will happen: The hard core dems will vote for Hillary. Of those less than hard core I think many may skip voting because they realize what Hillary is. The hard core repbs will vote for Trump. Probably close to the same percentage of not hard core as Hillary will pass on voting. Trump will do better than past candidates in both the black & Latino votes, not great but he will get a higher percent than normal. The uncommitted voters will strongly favor Trump & they are the ones that will win the election for him.
.
I also believe that Trump will do GREAT in debates with Hillary. My guess would be that he will be like a pile driver on key issues & Hillary’s lies will really hurt her. I wouldn’t be surprised if her lies during the debate won’t be made into adds for Trump right after the debates. Just what I think will happen.


#26

Numbers are looking better. Still worrisome though.


#27

Current electoral numbers from RCP. Not looking good.

260 Clinton/Kaine

Toss Ups
113

Trump/Pence 165


#28

246 Clinton/Kaine

Toss Ups
112

Trump/Pence 180


#29

It takes 270 to win and second place does not count. Its going to be a LONG REACH, perhaps a bridge to far!


#30

Those figures ASSUME that the polls are correct. The only one that matters occurs next Tuesday.


#31

Better but still a long reach!

as of 2 nov 1230 CST

246 Clinton/Kaine

Toss Ups 112

Trump/Pence 180

RealClearPolitics - 2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House


#32

True, but keep in mind that the averages, like the RCP polls, have been pretty close to the end results in the last several elections.

Not exact, but close.


#33

From what I understand is that it’s not so much about National average, but the swing state winners. I thin Bush won the election in 2000 even though he lost in overall votes.


#34

That is electoral votes. Democrats start with a lot more electoral votes in the blue column.
If you assume solid blue/red as being states that haven’t changed hands in the last 20 years, it looks like this

As you see, Democrats have a much higher floor than Republicans. Neither McCain nor Romney could manage it, and Bush never cleared 300. Meanwhile, it was pretty easy for Obama to rack up north of 350 with a moderate sized win over McCain.


#35

I never like to read too much into polls. However, I think the most important detail one can take away from comparing the average of several polls over time - both nationally and state by state - is the trend line. Is there movement and, if so, in what direction is the trend and what is the apparent magnitude of the change id polling data.

With respect to this race, it is clear that Trump has some level of positive momentum - stronger in some swing states than others. However, that there is significant movement since last week is clear. Generally speaking the momentum appears to be accelerating.

Bottom line - The race is not over, Hillary likely has the inside track, still, but Trump has a chance. IMHO

We can only hope.

That said, I wonder when the next bombshell will come and whom it will land on?


#36

I agree, but the best I can be is cautiously optimistic. The Electoral College is heavily in the Dems favor. Yes ago “progressives” wanted to do away with it. Now they’ll fight tooth and nail to keep it.

We can hope for a repeat of 1980 when Reagan overtook Carter in the closing days. Hillary and Obama are down to only denouncing Trump. They have nothing else to run on. With Obamacare premiums going though the roof and the Middle East in turmoil, they have nothing else.


#37

I did the math Sunday night and Trump will win next Tuesday, there will be significant fraud but not enough to save Hillary. I was going to write a blog outlining the metrics I used but it does not appear that I will have the time, but congratulations to those supporting Trump and I will have to hope that I am wrong about who and what he is.


#38

It’s a crap shoot Ret. No one can be sure but you do know what Clinton IS.


#39

Wherever the polls end up, Hillary will underperform them unless she can get a black turnout comparable to Obama 2008 and 2012. My guess is no.


#40

OK, how about the Cliff notes version or RET423 Trump can win for Dummies, I would interested in seeing what you got to say…

WHY? I am thinking the NAACP (word is) that are getting ready to sue almost every state over “Alleged voter suppression”…