The Gallup daily tracking poll of likely voters released on October 26 shows Mr. Romney leading Barack Obama 51% to 46%. Mr. Romney holds the lead in the nine elections since 1936 in which either an incumbent president was defeated or there was no incumbent. Tied for second are Mr. Obama (2008) and George H.W. Bush (1992) with 50% at this point in the race, followed by John F. Kennedy (1960), Jimmy Carter (1980) and George W. Bush (2000) with 49%, Dwight D. Eisenhower with 48% (1952), Richard M. Nixon with 44% (1968), Bill Clinton with 40% (1992) and finally Ronald Reagan who actually trailed Jimmy Carter in 1980 with 39% to Carter’s 45%.
I’m not much of a poll cat, personally. There’s only one poll that means anything, the one on Election Day. And any resemblance between the results of that poll and previous opinion polls is consistently inconsistent.