csbrown, babbles about “unprecedented warming”,yeah in your imagination since there is no such evidence in the Satellite data. Back in post #85,I pointed out the utter failure of the IPCC 1990 per decade prediction,which make clear there is no unusual warming trend going on. The Satellite data I posted make clear the AGW conjecture is failing simple tests right there in front of you.
Per decade rate, FAIL
Tropical hotspot, FAIL
Positive Feedback loop, FAIL
That is enough to show the utter failure of the AGW conjecture, why are you still defending it?
“Even if all that were true, that still doesn’t explain how recent unprecedented warming began in the first place. When we look at the output from the sun, we see declining energy over the last 40 years. In the past, CO2 or methane, regardless of there impact on warming, do not start warming events. Warming has to happen for another reason to start the feedback cycle.”
The main cause of warming in recent decades are coming form the OCEAN waters,which from strong El-Nino’s and High ENSO values creates the periodic burps of energy from the DENSE high heat capacity water to the thin, low density atmosphere,which is why the air warms up so quickly,then cool back down a lot. The effect from the unusually high solar output from 1900 to the 1950’s. There are many published science papers supporting this position,have you ever read any of them Brown?
Here is a LONG list of papers to chose from:
Your talk of needing something else to trigger warming for the never seen positive feedback to show up,it is a delusion that never seems to go away. I posted a data based chart in post #95 showing that over the last 10,000 years of large temperature swings, CO2 barely changed at all,no evidence of large feedback showing up,how do you explain that?
brown writes ignorantly,since CH4 rapidly changes to CO2,with a negligible warm forcing effect. Have you seen it’s tiny presence in the IR window,where it doesn’t even absorb much IR in it’s OWN bandwidth…
“In this case, it was the release of CO2 that has caused the tip as we released from sources that were previously sequestrated. Now if Methane is more powerful than predicted, all that means to me is that the feedback effect triggered by CO2 release is going to happen more rapidly than the models predict.”
CH4 absorption of outgoing IR is VERY low since it’s main feeble bandwidth are at the LOW energy end of the IR spectrum. I showed you the chart at post #93 about it. MODTRAN result confirm that even a DOUBLING of CH4 will produce a dribble of warm forcing effect. MODTRAN also show that CO2 doubling effect is very small too.
You wrote this,
“changes in the Milankovitch cycle”, which has for around the last 3,500 years been in NEGATIVE insolation trend territory,which means the world has been COOLING,we are now in the autumn part of the cycle,with Glaciation drawing near,with new glaciers showing up in the last 1,500 years in formerly NO ice field areas for previous thousands of years.
Warmists now live and die on the never seen in last 600 Million years,Positive Feedback Loop, it is all they have left now to rescue their from their mass delusions they fervently cling to,since CO2 Molecules by itself might dredge up a slight warm forcing increase in the next 83 years of around… he he…ha ha,ohhh I am scared… 1.0C warming. But with many recent published science papers showing two decade long reducing CO2 sensitivity levels, to less than 1C values,with a couple at ZERO effect.