He had 3 downs to get the touchdown
He had 15 seconds on the play clock
He had 65 seconds on the game clock
He had only one timeout
15 seconds is not enough time to get your run blocking offense in place for the 2nd down play, calling a run anyway with only your hands team on the field against a goal line defense would not have worked.
Using your last timeout before the 2nd down would essentially mean that you would not have time if the play failed to run a 3rd or 4th down play, meaning all your eggs would be in the 2nd down play basket.
Even spiking the football would be a better choice than burning your last timeout in that scenario, there was just no way the 2nd down play was going to be a run in these circumstances; it matters nothing what the season long or game long stats are because the issue is the time and the personnel match-up on the field at the time.
2nd down was going to be a spike or a pass play, it was NOT going to be a run without a timeout and no coach would burn his last timeout if it would nullify 2/3 of his chances to score do to the time issue.
That was not the reason, just play the options out in your head knowing the rules and the time on the game clock, the Patriots would have needed no gimmicks if Carroll calls the timeout before the 2nd down play. All they need to do is stop Lynch once and the clock will expire before they get the 3rd down play off.
Carroll is smart enough to know that explaining what I trying to explain in the media is as impossible as a QB trying to explain that his throw was dead on but a receiver ran the wrong route, there is NO WAY to come off well and very little chance at being understood.
So smart coaches and smart QB’s just take the heat upon themselves, that is what Carroll is doing. He was NOT going to throw Wilson under the bus or school a bunch of ex player, wanna-be coaches in the media; a coach is a politician as much as a football guy and you cannot win in this scenario except by taking the heat yourself.
Run it through in your head and you will see how “okay” it would have been, if they had failed to make it on 2nd down there would have been no more opportunities.
That is a media creation, the play was a standard goal line pass with a slot receiver and corner routes; it was Wilson’s job to read the coverage and pick one if he was sure he had it and throw the ball away if not.
Wilson picked the slot receiver, that was not the “Call” anymore than any other route that was ran; Wilson thought he saw an easy score so he took the shot in the slot.
All of which cannot force a QB to pick any particular option, Wilson is an improviser and very good at it; he just made a bad choice this time.
Wilson is a stud, he gets more done with less than most and his improvisation is what kept the Seahawks sqeaking out wins all year. Lynch did not have one single touchdown inside the 5 this year with wide receivers as his lead blockers and the two minute offense on the field.
Time and personnel at that moment, comparing stats from other circumstances with different time and personnel factors on both sides of the ball is not relevant.
It was a bad throw, he has to protect the football in that situation and he did not.
In that situation it should have been thrown away to stop the clock, the play was too tight to risk in that circumstance; the only reason to run that play instead of spiking the ball in those circumstances is to see if you can get lucky with a blown coverage.
The play was not supposed to be a “try to squeeze one in” play, it was called to preserve the clock, the timeout and set up two good tries afterward while still leaving the door open to catch a break on the 2nd down play.
Carroll made the perfect call in my view and the throw was off but not by much, Butler made a hall of fame read and timed it to perfection and he still needed the receiver to shy to make that pick.
Butler is the one getting overlooked, he sold that coverage like Deion Sanders.
All pass plays have multiple options, that is how you spread out the coverage; the QB decides which option he likes and everybody lives with it.
The play was “Take a shot if you’re certain, throw it away if there is any doubt”, it is a very common instruction in situations where the clock matters more than the given down.
It was not “cutesie” or “brilliant”, it was pretty standard clock management and the same principles as every good coach uses.
His only error was assuming the Patriots would call a timeout to save time for Brady to get a field goal, he should have been watching from the moment the whistle blew and when it failed to come ordered in his goal line offense.
I can’t fault him much for that since I have not heard anyone offer an explanation for Belichick’s move there, all I can think of is maybe Brady got dinged in the last drive and he did not think he could pull off his usual miracle.
But after losing those seconds there was only one course that would have enabled 3 good tries and that was the course Carroll took.
Perfect clock management and heads up QB play is what I would have said, I would not have considered the call at all since it was the only one that he could have made that would have preserved all three remaining downs if they had been needed.
Young and Montana both made a good living throwing to Rice in the slot in the red zone, Rich Gannon even capitalized on that option.
Carroll was not under center on that play, Carroll was not the one outsmarted.
It sounds like you think that pass plays are called with only one option? There were 5 eligible players to receive on that play, the QB decides which one he wants to utilize if any.
I just don’t see the “randomness” in it.
They had just completed a long pass play, most teams would have spiked the ball on first down in that scenario and changed personnel but the defense was not set up well so Wilson ran a play with the two minute offense still on the field and almost scored with it. The assumption that Belichick would call time to save the clock for himself was the only error I saw, that is what made changing personnel a non option for 2nd down.
After that, Carroll played it as smart as it can be played; Wilson just failed to protect the ball.
I think his QB just tried something that was too risky for the circumstance, that play was just supposed to set up the next two without removing all chance of scoring on 2nd down.
I think Lombardi’s resume was strong enough to withstand such a hit.
As is my analysis, but I rarely see clock management that takes full advantage of the time and circumstance so when I do I appreciate it.
And he is still considered the best in football today, the media takes a narrative and runs with it but the resume speaks louder.
Carroll played the media just right, he was self deprecating and let them feel smart instead of schooling them so he will remain a favorite to them.
Bush was stuffed in that game and White was the only one making yards, I remember that game well. I don’t judge a call based on whether it worked because calls are made before the plays are run, I judge them based on the criteria of the moment. I see dumb calls work and great calls fail all the time, offenses and defenses both have to execute on every play and how well or poorly they do matters as much or more as the call.
It would be hard to surprise USC fans with anything, inebriation tends to dull those senses.
It was as standard as black coffee given the time, personnel and circumstances in my view.
When has Belichick ever elaborated on anything? He hates the media.
If there was ever an NFL coach that did not give a damn what the media or fans thought it is Belichick, there was never going to be anyone credible saying that coming back from 10 points down in the 4th quarter against the best defense in football constitutes an “easy win”.
That Butler pick could only end the game because the Patriots had a 4 point lead, if that ball is dropped there is no guarantee that either one of the next 2 downs would have resulted in a touchdown.
In fact that probably bothers me more than anything, when the Rams beat the Titans everyone was saying that the Titans were inches away from winning the Super Bowl; in reality they were inches away from being one point down in the super bowl. They still would have needed an extra point and a successful overtime to win the Super Bowl.
From what I have seen of Carroll, his resume will talk much louder than his critics.
In practice they have multiple eligible receivers as well.
Players play, coaches coach.
Carroll’s teams all do very well regardless of whether anyone thinks they must win it all every year to validate his chops.
I don’t even like the guy but a heads up decision under fire is something I have always appreciated, I also can’t stand coaches who call plays that reveal they don’t trust their players.
And I see no basis for calling this stupid, coaches don’t throw passes.