CWolf - once again you’ve jumped the shark.
I COMPLETELY disagree that if Trump is the nominee many Cruz supporters will vote for Clinton. Not to place too fine a point on your statement, I think it is dog poop.
I think there are a number of Republicans/Conservatives who, if Trump is nominated, are likely to stay home. I have Republican/Conservative friends all over the country with whom I routinely correspond and I have yet to hear any of them express any willingness whatsoever to vote for Hillary Clinton.
This brings up exactly why I think Hillary is likely to be our next president UNLESS a dramatic turn takes place in the upcoming primaries.
It is widely assumed that Trump has expanded the base - that even some Democrats are supporting him over Clinton. I’m sure that’s true. By the way, it is a mistake to judge Trump’s support by the size of the crowds he draws at his campaign events. Many of those people simply want to see “the show”, to hear Trump’s latest bombastic remark and take in the antics of the demonstrators.
However, what is NOT being discussed is the fact that while Trump is bringing in some Democrat support through the front door, there can be little doubt that he is LOSING conservative support out the back door. None of us can know with precision how these disaffected conservatives will respond, but it is inconceivable they would go to the polls in November and actually cast a ballot for Clinton - an individual who has a belief system the antithesis of their own - far more likely they would simply stay home in November out of utter disgust and disrespect for both Clinton and Trump. Would this help Clinton’s cause? Of course it would.
On the other side of the coin, if at the convention in Cleveland Trump fails to gain the nomination, which is quite possible unless he captures the required 1237 delegates prior to the convention, then Trump will claim he was “robbed” and many of his supporters will likely stay home in November. Would this eventuality assist Clinton? You bet it would.
About the only way I see Clinton losing in November is for the primary race to significantly tighten between Trump and Cruz from this point forward and for Trump to fall significantly short of 1237 delegates. Perhaps Trump and his supporters would then be more receptive to allowing the convention process to play out under those conditions and not bolt from the Party should Cruz be the nominee - but I doubt it.
Then, of course, we also have the possibility of Trump going 3rd Party if he is not nominated.
Who knows - but given the reasons outlined above, I think it more likely Hillary wins in November than either Trump or Cruz. That’s too bad. Tragic, in fact.
By the way, CWolf - Your hypothesis has it exactly ass-backward. Cruz supporters won’t vote for Clinton if Trump is the nominee, as you claim. However, you can bet a substantial number of Trump supporters will end up voting for Hillary Clinton should Trump not gain the nomination - recall that a significant number of his supporters are DEMOCRATS!!.