Ted wins Iowa. What does this mean for New Hampshire?


#1

NH is decidedly more liberal, so I’m not sure how he’s going to do there.

What are your guesses at the outcome there? Please give your reasoning as well.


#2

Laura Ingraham gave a great analysis on that this morning on Fox and Friends. Trump will win NH and the “establishment” will throw its money behind Rubio while at the same time telling Bush, Kasich, et al, to get out. They want Trump and Cruz to bloody each other and have Rubio emerge as the good guy alternative (who also gets the votes that were going to Bush, Kasich, et al). You sort of had to hear Laura, she put it a little better than that, but that’s the jist of it.

EDIT: Great tweet about media bias: “if @tedcruz were a Democrat, the big news of the day would be about how he was the first Hispanic to win the #IowaCaucus


#3

<blockquote class=“twitter-tweet” data-lang=“en”><p lang=“en” dir=“ltr”>Yes, I can barely remember Reagan, Bush, McCain & Romney - all lost Iowa caucus, then became nominee (i.e. 1st!). <a href=“https://t.co/o292AWWymj”>https://t.co/o292AWWymj</a></p>— Ann Coulter (@AnnCoulter) <a href=“https://twitter.com/AnnCoulter/status/694519721216098304”>February 2, 2016</a></blockquote>
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#4

Donald will make 2nd place great again!

Seriously, NH is very different. Cruz has been working Iowa for 2 years and had the best ground game in the field. Cruz and Rubio will get a bump in NH but presently Trump is leading the entire field by a 3 to 1 margin according to the RCP averages. The only race in NH is for 2nd place between Kasich and Cruz at 11.5%, Bush 10.3% and Rubio 9.5%; Trump is at 33.2%.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - New Hampshire Republican Presidential Primary


#5

With all due respect, Ann Coulter couldn’t analyze a pile of caca. Her history of candidates she’s been behind has been abysmal.


#6

Yeah, as I said, it’s much more liberal there, so I fully expect Trump to win NH.
Still, he was supposed to mop the floor in Iowa with Cruz, by the polls.

More and more my regard for polls is dropping like a bacon sandwich in a Muslim’s hands.


#7

Uhhh, I was talking about Laura Ingraham’s analysis. :eusa_think:


#8

Ah, well, this is what I saw and had her name stuck in my head.

Laura Ingraham isn’t so bad. I don’t follow her that much though. I’ve heard her radio show a few times, and wasn’t overly impressed.


#9

Before Trump she was in the Romney tank and before that she worshipped at the altar of Chris Christie. I think her big Trump support is partially to promote her latest book on illegal immigration. She is basically an entertainer and an opportunist but she does come up with a lot of good one-liners.


#10

Yeah, you could say New Hampshire is “different”, alright.


#11

And as much as I like Laura Ingraham, as if it’d take a rocket surgeon to come to that analysis. :rolleyes:

(FWIW, Ingraham is beginning to lose the ‘favorability’ rating I once held for her. And it didn’t start here.)


#12

I think Trump will win New Hampshire, the polls show him with a significant lead there.


#13

My guess is also that Trump will win NH, and the rest of the north east. Basically, all the liberal areas.

I don’t believe polls though.


#14

I generally am skeptical of polls, but when they have a candidate leading by over 10%, I think it’s realistic that the candidate will win.


#15

Correct me if I’m wrong, but didn’t they have Trump in as big of lead in Iowa?

Pollsters crack me up. I did recently say that if NUMEROUS polls reflect the same thing, then maybe there’s a least a little something to that.

What’s comical is that we, we lowly voters, are seemingly the only ones who are aware of what a joke they are, while candidates and campaigners spend half a fortune literally buying them.
:rofl:


#16

He had something like a 5 point lead that had been dropping over the last few days. That’s why I predicted a Cruz victory.

The Iowa polls show Trump with a lead of 22%, and rising.


#17

<blockquote class=“twitter-tweet” data-lang=“en”><p lang=“en” dir=“ltr”>Delegate count via <a href=“https://twitter.com/FoxNews”>@FoxNews</a> is 8 for Cruz; 7 for Trump & Rubio.</p>— Laura Ingraham (@IngrahamAngle) <a href=“https://twitter.com/IngrahamAngle/status/694666632598192128”>February 2, 2016</a></blockquote>
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#18

Not a lot of evangelicals in N.H., and a whole lot of moderates. It’s tailor-made for Trump. Cruz and Rubio might do better than everyone expects, but Trump will still probably win by double digits. Or in the high single-digits.


#19

New Hampshire allows anyone who has not declared a Party affiliation to vote in either Party’s Primary, they are a very Leftist State so this gives a big advantage to Statist Republicans in years when the Democrat Candidate is a given.

But this year the Democrat is not a given, if that translates into most of the non declared voters choosing to vote on the Democrat ticket then New Hampshire can easily go Conservative like Iowa did.

Plus, Trump is still talking and he can say a lot of things in a week.