If the polls are accurate and don’t change, it looks like Democrats have the 2020 election in the bag. If that’s true, they should be thinking long and hard about the VP pick because there is a 99.9% chance that person will be President.
Things could change, of course. Jimmy Carter was ahead of Ronald Reagan at this point in 1980, but Reagan was the challenger.
Biden is a tired old man with a failing mind. There is no way that he will be in office for four years unless we are ready to accept a president in a vegetative state.
The Democrats had a similar dilemma in 1944. Those who were close to Franklin D. Roosevelt knew that he would not last for four more years. He had terminal cardiovascular disease. His doctors knew it, but they were not going to make it public.
The vice president was Henry Wallace. Wallace had been the secretary of agriculture. When John Nance Garner left the administration after serving as vice president for two terms, Wallace got the nod.
Wallace was an extreme liberal, perhaps a socialist. He was also very arrogant and had a huge ego as he would prove when he ran a third party effort to unset Truman in 1948. He thought that he was entitled to FDR’s political legacy.
He had totally naïve view of the Soviet Union. At one people he compared them to the “young Christians.” He couldn’t see the threat to Joseph Stalin posed.
There was little chance that FDR would lose in 1944 despite the fact that he was running for an unprecedented fourth term. The man had lock on the presidency for as long as he wanted it.
At first FDR stood firm and said he wanted Wallace, but after a while he saw that many Democrats met business. Wallace had to go. Fortunately, his replacement was Harry Truman.