The Next 100 Years


#1

I have just recently finished reading an amazing book about the Geopolitics of the future and it was surprisingly pro-American and anti-doomsday. That’s right the world is NOT going to end from Global Warming or any other natural disaster (see what I did there?). We are not going to blow ourselves up and society will not collapse if Obama is re-elected. (This was even written during the 2008 election and released once Obama was in charge.)

Dr. Friedman is the Chief Executive Officer and founder of STRATFOR. Since 1996 Dr. Friedman has driven the strategic vision guiding STRATFOR to global prominence in private geopolitical intelligence and forecasting.

Synopsis from goodreads.com:

The Next 100 Years draws on a fascinating exploration of history and geopolitical patterns dating back hundreds of years. Friedman shows that we are now, for the first time in half a millennium, at the dawn of a new era—with changes in store, including:

• The U.S.-Jihadist war will conclude—replaced by a second full-blown cold war with Russia.
• China will undergo a major extended internal crisis, and Mexico will emerge as an important world power.
• A new global war will unfold toward the middle of the century between the United States and an unexpected coalition from Eastern Europe, Eurasia, and the Far East; but armies will be much smaller and wars will be less deadly.
• Technology will focus on space—both for major military uses and for a dramatic new energy resource that will have radical environmental implications.
• The United States will experience a Golden Age in the second half of the century.
• As we enter the 22nd century the US will see growing tensions and a possible civil war with Mexico as American and Mexican politics intermingle and become more polarized than ever before!

My Review: *****

Great book. If you want to learn something about why America is the most powerful nation on the planet, how it got here, and where geopolitics, technology and, wars will take the world. Please read this book. Even though it is full of scenarios that the author cannot possibly predict. What he does outline makes logical sense. I can see the world as he does in 2100 and in 2030. His facts about Turkey, Japan and Mexico are correct! I see the beginnings of humans in space as he does. I also see the robots coming into play in the future as well. I think he doesn’t predict how far technology can get in 2100 because he cannot know. Just as the microchip makers in the 1970s didn’t know that it would run a computer that can fit in the palm of your hand. Keep an open mind while reading this and maybe younger people like me will experience a bit of deja vu in the Mid- 21st when Japan attacks the US!

The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century: George Friedman: 9780385517058: Amazon.com: Books


#2

I and several of my friends subscribed to STRATFOR, but I no longer buy into a lot of things they are saying.

You did a good review, thanks, but very little I concur with.

War will never conclude with the radical Muslims, if history is a predictor then expect us and the world to do battle evermore. The ME radical muslims are the pawns of China and Russia. In fact we are really at war with them, mostly the Russians who are on the comeback trail BIG TIME. Ruskys are not stupid, hard headed, yes, but they can learn and learn they have. NO ONE on the face of this planet has tried any harder and put more effort and resources against socialism than the Ruskys. It EPIC FAILED, so much so even the Chinese abandoned their move to socialism. In their case it was a lot easier as they trailed the Ruskys by years and years at it. The Ruskys have not changed course and embraced capitalism full blown. Most Ruskys in the leadership are cold war guys and they carry a hate for the US as great as any.

We have fought the Ruskys and China since Vietnam. You did not read about it, but it was EZ to tell a Chinaman from a Vietnamese…physical size! Gear, no shortage of Russian trucks, tanks, light arty and various field pieces up North when I was on the DMZ…we were told to keep it zipped.

China has its share of internal issues. Capitalism brings on success, bring on freedom. But China is a hard line commie country and they do things in a brutal fashion. Note there approach to ending drug use. Years ago China was a druggie haven. Men retired to the opium dens and lived out their lives as zombies. Drugs, use etc was rampart. Then one day they said on the 1st of next month, no more drug use, no more opium dens. The following day we kill you if you are caught using. Just the way they do business, iron fist leadership. Kinda like 1 Billion Muslims are being led by the nose by and handful of radicals. Last month (Aug) 17 Afgan’s were beheaded for singing and dancing…just the way its done, keeps folks in line.

“unexpected coalition from Eastern Europe, Eurasia, and the Far East”: Sorry, not likely. Russia is the 800 lb bear in the room, Europe is WEAK, very weak. They lack much in the way of military or military experience. Russia will crush them like a beer can. The only key Asian player is China and the Ruskys big plan is to someday divy up the world with them, unless Putins ego get so far out of whack they think some can really rule the world.

The US is still the only true superpower and we will remain that for sometime due to our military and not much else if 'bammy has his way. But we are holding a couple of ACE’S in our military: Man and material, we have the superior tactics, honed on the battlefield since WWII, our soldiers especially our leadership has the combat experience. NO COUNTRY on EARTH has them.

SIDEBAR: Socialism reared its UGLY head beginning with the Ruskys after WWII. We knew the Ruskys were gonna be a problem so we danced wtih them and they got a piece of the pie in Europe. But we headed over there and STOOD in the Fulda Gap to keep the Ruskys at bay. So what happened? Europe found itself with time on their hands and money to burn as they did not need a major military. They have always been high tax and they poured defense money into social programs. Capitalism of the US was the engine driving the worlds economy and we could not spend it fast enough and even had enough bucks to defend the world as the cop on the beat and never got a FRIGGIN payday from any of the stinkin countries we have kept safe for nearly 70 years. Were it me, I would take Gold or Oil or get the hell out! So drunk with excess money socialism flourished in the world and now everyone except us is running like hell from it…only we are funding socialism by borrowing money from the Chinese and printing it…

‘we have found the enemy and he is US’

Don’t bet on space: Unless we can get capitalism to make it happen by doing it and making a profit. I have done IT consulting work for NASA, know a lot of engineers friends there. NASA lost it way after they put a man on the moon. They started following their own nose instead of leadership coming out of a POTUS like JFK. Had we wanted we would have already BEEN to Mars…but no focus by NASA on anything but easy and fun stuff that let them continue to hire like crazy, pay massive salaries and do a LOT of stuff that had nothing to do with NASA…I spent many eve hours listening to engineers tell me these things. I also lived not far from NASA Langely.

Golden age for the US: ONLY if we change course, 6 Nov will the die will be struck

Mexico: More potential than you can imagine. BUT can they realize it? THey are making progress albeit slowly. Only a few years ago 10% of Mexican owned and controlled 90% of the countries assets. Its getting better but they have a LOT of laws that stop progress. Mexico MAY have the worlds largest oil deposits, however no one knows for sure. But lets put it this way…Texas has got oil and the oil does NOT stop at the Rio Grande…we think??? Mexico hit a MAJOR oil find in the GoM, BILLIONS and BILLIONS of bbls. But Mexico cannot drill it. They lack the tech, and their laws do not allow them to partner with outside companies. To make it worse, Mexico’s oil companies are near broke as all the $ is peeled off to fund the govt…PEMEX does almost ZERO R&D. They cannot even drill below 8000’. THey can play, but gonna take some major changes. Add to that a uneducated workforce and the greed of the upper class…Mexico has very little middle class, its poor and super rich. Right now their biggest problem is drug cartels. Also Mexico has a long history of payoffs. You can do almost anything in Mexico if you got the dust to buy off people. Again history is a good indicator of future performance and even a 100 years out at best we can be hopeful for them…