Re; The Republican Primary
IMHO - it is IMPOSSIBLE TO OVERSATE the level of anger most Republicans have for the Republican status quo establishment and the state of affairs at home and abroad.
This anger has been building for years and is, I think, a by-product of events and broken promises going back years - even to the GW Bush administration, if not before. GW fought a war in Iraq with good intentions, but without a clear objective - our rules of engagement ensured the war would drag out for years, guaranteeing thousands of our best young people would sustain life-altering, if not life ending, injuries. These rules, along with the other miscalculations including the under-deployment of personnel, ensured we would have to take the same ground several times. Upon their arrival in country, our soldiers didn’t even have the proper protective equipment necessary - recall that many parents were sending protective armor to their sons and daughters early in the war. Deciding to spend a $trillion and a half dollars rebuilding the country proved both unpopular and unwise.
In 2008 enter Barack Obama - largely elected as a result of a longer than necessary effort in the ME/war fatigue and Democrat propaganda blaming the wrong people/party for a banking disaster primarily brought about by the liberal notion that everyone has the right to own a home and a weak Repub candidate in McCain. Now after over 7 years of the Obama disaster, including his pissing away the lives, limbs and effort of our military in the ME and several years of a Republican controlled House that did little to fulfill the promises to stop/slow the Obama disaster and now a Senate run by a feckless Republican leadership, Republicans across the country are indicating a COMPLETE and UTTER disgust with their government in general and a feckless Republican Party in particular. A Party granted control of Congress, but perceived to be too damn weak or too damn stupid to stand up and pull the plug on nearly 2 decades of bullshit - bullshit that has us losing everywhere and over everything.
To top it off, especially under Obama, this UTTER and UNDENIABLE and MONUMENTAL LACK OF SUCCESS ANYWHERE has come at the cost of doubling the debt and throwing away trillions of dollars everywhere. It seems the American people have decided to hell with Washington - we are not going to put up with spending money for prime rib and getting a plate of horseshit!! No more promises; screw you clowns.
All of that said, IMHO - unless Trump experiences a monumental collapse, he will be the Republican nominee. He has tapped into what I described above. He is the quintessential OUTSIDER during a year when not being a beltway lizard is crucial.
Cruz might have given Trump a run for his money. After all, he has been widely perceived as an outsider. However, WHETHER JUSTIFIED OR NOT, he is/has been painted as a liar because of missteps by some within his campaign. As a result, IMHO some Republicans voters are beginning to view his campaign methods as dishonest - and these same voters have had a belly full of inauthentic beltway lizards from Washington. Again, I’m not passing judgment on Cruz - Frankly, I don’t think “dirty tricks” is what he’s about - I’m only citing what is going on within the nominating/primary process.
Rubio - he is identified as Establishment - he identifies himself as Establishment. Most of those endorsing him are viewed - correctly or not - as Establishment. Rubio is young, has a good story and is smart. IMHO - any other year he might have been the nominee. However, many/most Republicans are TOTALLY PISSED AT WASHINGTON and a political class viewed as responsible, along with the Left, for screwing them. Rubio will be the recipient of a lot of donor money - donors defined as party regulars, Repub Party consultants and lobbyists. Deserved or not, the source of this support will only serve to solidify the view that he is “Establishment”, IMHO. He may become the nominee - but given the level of voter angst, I really doubt it.
Carson and Kasich are not part of this analysis as they are essentially non factors - IMHO.
That leaves me thinking Trump will gain the nomination. For those who think the RNC is going to put its thumb on the scales at some point, let me say this. I am now of the mind that Trump threatening to go rogue (3rd party) is his attempt to build a “firewall” against this possibility.
Do I think Trump will win in November if he becomes the nominee?
Beats the hell out of me.
BTW - one more point. As Obama fills out his disastrous legacy between now and November he is going to further piss off and harden the resolve of Republican voters. Should Congress fail to block much of his BS it will serve to remind Republican voters just how Washington has failed them.
Enter Donald Trump.
2cent - I think I’m entering into the 5th and final phase of the 5 stages of grief - the Acceptance Phase . LMAO