I’ll be brief.
In an effort to avoid a food fight on RO, let me answer the question by stating a undeniable fact: Trump did not win and Pelosi did not lose. That portion of the government that was shutdown over the funding of the wall/steel barrier is now open and Pelosi and the House has still given nary an additional $dollar toward barrier construction.
By signing the continued resolution to fund the government until mid-February, Pelosi and Trump have publicly agreed for a bi-partisan group to meet over the next 3 weeks to work out the current stalemate.
So, what will come of all this? Here’s my prediction:
Pelosi/Dems have no political reason on earth to negotiate barrier funding. Not now and not during the next 3 weeks. Their goal is not border security - their goal is amnesty/path to citizenship = additional Democrat voters.
So what are Trump’s options?
Well, he can order another government shutdown. But, why would he? His attempt to leverage wall funding through the recent shutdown, by any measure, failed.
He can simply fold and sign a continuing budget resolution for another year. I don’t see Trump doing this.
I think what will happen is that no headway will take place during the aforementioned negotiations. That being the case, I think Trump will play the “Emergency Order” card - declare a border emergency and dedicate emergency funds to continue barrier construction. As a footnote, the 10K member caravan ought to be gathering at our southern border about mid-February.
OK - so Trump declares a national emergency - then what will happen?
What the hell do you think will happen? The Dems will make a beeline to the 9th Circuit Court Of Appeals and secure a court injunction against emergency funding. Of course, the case will eventually make its way to the John Robert’s led Supremes. Constitutional arguments will be raised. Anyone who claims to know how the Roberts court will rule is a fool.
OR, I supposeTrump could ignore the 9th Circuit’s order, divert funds budgeted to another department(s) and move forward and then get impeached for real, as there are no doubt many Repub Senators who would vote to take him down.
Final point: Talk about “government shutdowns”. In a very real sense, the Democrats have shutdown the House Of Representatives to meaningful negotiations. As a result, I would be amazed if we ever see a real and completed physical barrier along our southern border.