Unskewed Prediction: Romney - 342 vs Obama - 196


#1

This is a very interesting analysis and prediction of the upcoming election:

Mitt Romney 52 percent 342 electoral votes projected at UnSkewedPolls.com - Arlington Conservative | Examiner.com

They also make their methodology very clear and easy to understand:

UnSkewed Polls – erasing the bias to show an accurate picture of politics

QStarNews Poll methods and modeling

The QStarNews Poll is all about getting it right and putting out accurate numbers on where the political races and other questions of public opinion really stand as of now. Our goal is to NOT be skewed or confirm pre-conceived results. This election season has seen so many polls heavily skewed and poorly weighted, that show skewed and inaccurate results. The purpose of this poll is to present the most accurate results possible based on the latest of what is known about the electorate and voter behavior and other statistical information available.

The QStarNews poll works with the premise that the partisan makeup of the electorate 34.8 percent Republicans, 35.2 percent Democrats and 30.0 percent independent voters. Additionally, our model is based on the electorate including approximately 41.0 percent conservatives, 20.0 percent moderates and 39.0 percent liberals.

Republicans are 89 percent conservative, 9 percent moderate and 2 percent liberal. Among Democrats, 3 percent are conservative, 23 percent are moderate and 74 percent are liberal. Independents include 33 percent conservatives, 49 percent moderates and 18 percent liberals.

Our polls about doubly-weighted, to doubly insure the results are most accurate and not skewed, by both party identification and self-identified ideology. For instance, no matter how many Republicans answer our survey, they are weighted at 34.8 percent. If conservatives are over-represented among Republicans in the raw sample, they are still weighted at 89 percent of Republicans regardless. This system of double weighting should insure our survey produces very accurate results, not skewed either way for the Democrats or for the Republicans.