What will happen after S.C votes today? Big consequences for some, exciting process


#1

Been following this election fairly closely like many of you. Pretty clear if the polls are accurate that Trump runs away with South Carolina. It’s anyones guess for 2nd, though it seems Cruz beating Rubio by a nose which in and of itself could have major consequences.

What do these results mean for Bush? This was supposed to be his state. A 4th finish and surely he can’t justify continuing.

Furthermore, at what point will this race get down to 2 or 3 candidates? You guys would know this better than I but it seems to me that if this doesn’t get to a 1v1 showdown that Trump will run the table with the splitting of votes.


#2

People who run for president all have huge egos. They get out when the money runs out. Bush is going out but he is not going out soon.


#3

I believe the issue is ego and false belief. Worse, some refuse to analyze the polls appropriately and hang on to some form of false hope, even if it means a crushing loss to them and the party.

I imagine if one is surrounded by strong supporters and die-hard believers 24/7 they themselves will fail to see with true clarity that their chances are slim to none. I don’t like Trump, nor want him to win, but for awhile its been clear he is the favourite by a mile. I am hoping an electable candidate with strong economic conservative views is chosen, but it doesn’t appear this will be the case. Bush has been pretty good the last month or so, but he won’t win the nomination.


#4

It’s disappointing because Jeb seems the best of the bunch. It I had to pick a second, it’d probably be Rubio, though.


#5

Immense pressure will rain down on the heads of the lower three to get out and support Cruz or Rubio…most likely Rubio. Bush will protect the name and the brand and will get out to avoid humiliation. He had to stop paying campaign employees today. Tomorrow morning we will see one or two suspensions.


#6

Jeb quits the race!

If Cruz can’t win in South Carolina then where?. I think after the March 1st primaries it will become a Trump versus Rubio race.


#7

The race is unfolding as I had hoped. I am hoping for Rubio obviously. Im not sure Cruz can do any better moving forward than in S.C where his following would be strong.

Here is the problem as it always has, as far as I am concerned. Unless this becomes a two man race, Trump wins, and he won’t beat Clinton. Just my two cents. Rubio will beat her soundly and the Conservative party will grow, again just my two cents.


#8

If it goes to Trump verse Rubio that soon Trump will lose, if the Establishment can condense their minority before the big blue states with winner take all delegate rules vote they will once again prevail.

Most Cruz supporters list Rubio as a second choice (not me but most), and most Rubio supporters want nothing to do with Trump; Cruz would be an acceptable shift for them I would assume.

And South Carolina is an Open Primary State, I think Trump will have more difficulty in States that restrict the GOP Primary to registered Republicans.


#9

I just looked at the latest NBC/WSJ poll and was shocked to find that the vast majority of Cruz supporters would go to Rubio rather than Trump. On the other hand, if it got down to Trump vs. Rubio I could write effective attack ads on Rubio’s positions until the cows come home. I am sure Trump’s people can easily do the same and I believe he is willing put up the money and bombard the air waves.

Anyway, we both agree that Rubio would be a disaster for this country.


#10

I’m not surprised at all, they are the “anti-Trump” representatives and it is effectively a three man race. The adage that “the enemy of my enemy is my friend” applies here. Cruz presents himself as the anti-establishment, but I don’t buy that at all, he is extremely well funded, this money isn’t coming from his own pocket you can be sure. The only outsiders are Carson and Trump as they are not politicians, simple really.

The dislike for Rubio seems to be deep on this forum, yet, his support among Republican voters is strong and broad, what gives? I hear so much disdain for Obama on this forum by many, yet, the Democrat candidate in all likelihood is openly stating they will continue the same policies, with a new Liberal supreme court nominee in all likelihood, and the most electable GOP candidate is deemed the enemy. I’m confused. This isn’t a competition for runner up.

In some respects I understand and maybe I even quietly admire the commitment to a particular candidate, but ultimately logic has to set in. Noone is going to have a perfect build-a-bear president that will reflect with absolute perfection your views across the spectrum. If you don’t want to “settle” that’s an honourable position, as long as you accept the consequences. I can see this unfolding and I’m new to election politics.

Trumps immigration stance and his tough talk against China is going to be difficult to overcome by anyone as long as this race remains anything but a two man competition. I don’t think he will ever be president though his drive to win is remarkable, but I will say that he is not beholden to anyone, he is the only one who can say this. Based on Carsons’ ethical beliefs, he appears committed to those who donated to him, he wants to stay in the race to be that bee in the ear even if he realizes he cannot win. That’s his commitment as it stands. Everyone else requires funding and support.


#11

He has pulled about 22 percent of the vote so far, that is about normal for an Establishment shill; in fact even Romney had more at this point.

Where would all this “strong and broad support” be located?


#12

I believe Cruz can win Georgia and Texas, both highly significant. Maybe other places, but I’m not familiar enough with them.

The question is, where can Rubio win?


#13

Rubio can win in America. Florida to Alaska in a general election. That is the most significant of all. Unless of course, participating ribbons is the meaning of this exercise.

Excuse me if I sound blunt, especially on a Sunday. I appreciate much of the passion that most of you bring, even if I don’t agree with all of your stances, that’s ok, because they are personal and based on your ideals. If you ask yourself, in the large kaleidoscope of Americans in all walks of life, all ages, religions, socio-economic statuses, race, gender, marital status etc can you imagine the majority of these citizens lining up and voting for Cruz over Clinton? Of course he will garner some votes, maybe it’s closer than I believe, but will he receive more than 50%?

Let me be more succinct. there was never going to be a candidate from the GOP side who was going to win this in a landslide. This will be a hotly debated, closely fought battle in the best case scenario for the GOP.


#14

I’m just as stunned. Cruz and Rubio have about as much in common as Netanyahu and the Iranians. Just goes to show the political acumen of voters. Or their depth of core values. (Same thing, I guess.)

On the other hand, if it got down to Trump vs. Rubio I could write effective attack ads on Rubio’s positions until the cows come home.

Please do.

I am sure Trump’s people can easily do the same and I believe he is willing put up the money and bombard the air waves.

True. On another note, I cannot, for the life of me, think of his main spokeswoman’s name. Bless, she is one sharp lady. IOW, putting her out there, too, wouldn’t hurt.

Anyway, we both agree that Rubio would be a disaster for this country.

We must, at all costs, defeat Rubio.


#15

I have to say that Rubio has the best chance right now, he will get the Bush support for the most part and Kasich also when he finally calls it quits; the Establishment knows this so they will pressure the bottom feeders to quit.

That will put Rubio into a solid 1st or second place in States with Open Primaries and the likely winner in Closed Primary States as well if Cruz stays in.

Trump is pulling about 20 percent of GOP support, he gets to the mid 30’s with Independents and Democrats so he is very strong in Open Primary States; but that means the 45 to 50 percent of GOP support that has been going to Cruz/Rubio and the 20 percent that is scattered among the bottom tier candidates can stop him.

The likely scenario as I see it is this;

  1. The GOP pressures their Statist guys to quit so Rubio can solidify second place.
  2. Cruz waits to see if his support can deliver him the win in Closed Primary States, but he likely cannot win those after Rubio consolidates the Establishment wing.
  3. Cruz then realizes that all he can really do by staying in is to help Trump, he will then have to decide if he thinks Trump would be better than Rubio; given this choice I would bet that Cruz would hold his nose for Rubio before Trump.

So Cruz drops out, most of his support shifts to Rubio, and the Establishment gets their guy Rubio. The GOP Primary structure is nearly impossible to defeat; this outcome was always the most likely even in a year with a near mutiny within the GOP Base.

The only way this Primary structure can be defeated is if Conservatives picked a single horse before voting starts and stayed with them no matter what; this would require far more organization in the Base than is likely to ever form.

Which is why I advocate for forming a Party that does not require the Base having fight their own just as hard as they fight the Democrats.

Rubio does whatever the GOP Leaders tell him to do, that means his campaign in the General will look just like Romney’s; terrified to confront the Democrats and prohibited from making any genuine Conservative arguments or promises.

I am sure that will finally work this time[/sarcasm]


#16

Groovy. Jeb and Rubio. Throw in Christie, and we’ve got the RINO Brothers…


#17

Don’t forget Kasich, the RINO quartet.

:banana::banana::banana::banana:


#18

I pretty well knew we were screwed when it became obvious that neither Trump nor Cruz supporters were willing to concede the tiniest little flaw in ‘their’ candidate. And, conversely, willing to admit that the ‘other’ guy’s candidate did have his strong points. Heck, a child molester would be more popular than to suggest such a thing in either camp.

So, now that I think about it, it shouldn’t have been such a big surprise that Cruz supporters would go with Rubio over Trump.

Funny how so one says a peep about where they think Rubio’s support will go when he drops out.

Oh well. It was fun while it lasted.


#19

I have pointed out multiple flaws in Cruz, from his tax policy to his campaign strategy; I just have not attacked his character because it is iron clad.

Cruz supporters are for Cruz because he is a Conservative ideologue with integrity proved under fire, it should not surprise anyone that they would not consider a populist with no ideological moorings as their second choice.

Everyone has said that Rubio supporters would mostly go to Cruz if Rubio quit and visa versa, every poll has consistently revealed that. Rubio’s people would do that because they consider him the second most Conservative guy left but with better elect-ability than Cruz, Cruz supporters would go Rubio because they also consider Rubio the second most Conservative guy left albeit with some baggage.

Nothing is unknown about this dynamic, every poll has revealed all of this consistently; as long as both Rubio and Cruz remain Trump will do well.

I really don’t understand the claim that “nobody says where Rubio supporters will go”, I specifically identified Rubio and Carson voters as pliable toward Cruz and visa versa if their first choice was not available or gaining traction; these voters are making up over 50 percent of the voters who have voted so far.

Rubio is unique of this group in that he would also be the second choice for Bush, Kasich and Christie as well since he is the Establishment backed candidate now, that means he can get their collective 8 or 9 percent as they quit.

It is just math, math that will work in the Establishments favor because Conservatives are schizophrenic as soon as the GOP and the media start feeding them narratives.


#20

RET, when I mentioned ‘no one’ talking about Rubio’s votes going to Cruz (or whomever), I was referring to pollsters, talking heads, and the like. Not individuals on bb’s.

It was meant as a jibe toward them for never considering it the other way around. That’s all.