Why is Ukraine the West's Fault? Feat. John Mearsheimer

John Mearsheimer is a proponent of what is called the “realist” school of Geopolitics.

It’s a school of thought that treats international relations as being anarchy by default, and mostly about power maximization. nation trying to increase spheres of influences. It likes the idea of buffer states, and of America only getting involved overseas to act as an “offshore balancer”, to keep peace and status quos intact.

Mearsheimer (circa 2015 here) saw us getting involved with the Ukrainian conflict as a mistake. It galvanized the Russians, it puts us into the middle of an identity conflict in a country that has no clear majority for who it wants to align with, and it makes America devote resources in an area of no strategic value.

All while were trying to concentrate resources in the Far East to counter China.

Ergo, “We have limited resources, shouldn’t we act with a sense of triage?”

He also suggests that we are inherently making the situation more dangerous by making politicians in Kiev think they can take hardliner stances with Russia; when they’d otherwise be compromising.

He overall believes the Ukraine itself would be more stable and prosperous if we pushed for it to be neutral, maintained as a buffer state.

… Personally, I don’t know. I’d hope that closer alignment with the E.U. would have a way of clearing out corruption in the country, but there’s no way to know that.

Taking sides, and pushing Sovereignty and NATO membership does seem to have had the effect of pushing the the two half of the country into implicit civil war.

Overall, I agree with Mearsheimer’s stances, but there are implications I can’t fully work out.

Should we sacrifice a nation’s ability to choose its own domestic policy, trade on its own sovereignty, for peace? Since there’s no strategic value, does that make it a fight not worth involving ourselves, or denying their request to join NATO?

You can find many responses to Mearsheimer’s stances here.

Other than a need to focus resources in Asia, the strongest argument Mearsheimer makes for non-involvement is just imagining the switch in positions: If China had brokered a military alliance with Canada and Mexico, would we bear with them stationing troops along those borders?

Would we stay silent? Would we do nothing?

We arm them and watch the Ruskies pay in blood for their bread basket. Protect other nato allies at all costs. No one is suggesting going toe to toe over a fence sitting nation.

If the Ukraine was a membe of NATO, we would be obligated to fight the Russians ourselves. Do we let them in?

The Ukrainian state still has a lot of Russian agents in it until they clean it up and recover Donbass there’s not much we can do. In the future we could, right now no. It’s a moldova situation, where you have pro-Russian elements in a country that could want to join NATO same with Serbia. The idea is to bring NATO to Russia’s door to Negotiate to pull it away from China. We dropped the ball on Russia in the 90s they should of been the first one at the table. The late 20th century idea was to have a Unified Europe with Russia and a Unified North America with a functional Mexico to stand up to China. We have 80% of that but it’s still not enough. What do you not understand about 2.5 billion people in China?

Bump for relevance

Nope. There is some value in understanding the mind of a rapist. If your motive is to arrest them. Otherwise there is no point.

Trying to understand Putin’s logic only has benefit if the goal is to stop his fascist plans. Realpolitik has always been used as an excuse to justify past actions. Put the same people on the spot and they always equivocate. I urinate on them all.

What Putin is doing is wrong, and should be called out. It should be stopped, but only in a manner where bad does not become worse. And that’s where the jury is still out.

Is it rape? Again, the situation on the ground is not clear. The people in these Eastern areas look at Russia as a saviour.

Mearsheimer logic is that Ukraine would itself be better off as neutral, rather than pushing it to take sides.

Pushing sides is what has accelerated the split, and promoted ideas like banning Russian in schools.

And then there’s the triage angle; can we afford this fight? What do we gain by having it?

If Vietnam itself had been a perfectly justified conflict, would it still have made sense even if we’re leaving Western Europe vulnerable to the Soviets?

You are walking a very thin line, denouncing Putin is the smart move. You work in the defense industry you don’t think they monitor your net usage. Smart for you job, smart for your party.

No we gave them the means to defend themselves, we tried and thats all we could do but this doesn’t stop at Ukraine Lithuiana, Findland, Lativia, Estonia are all next targets.

I don’t think so. I would call it an analogy, though. Try not to think about it too literally.

I have said many time I consider Deutsche Welle one of the most reliable news outlets in the world. They are painting a different picture.

The obvious counter would be some rhetorical nonsense mentioning Chamberlain. A more cogent argument would be that considering this is merely an extension from the whole Crimea annexation, what guarantee is there that it will stop here? What will happen in 7 years time?

That’s a serious question. It’s a very good argument for not having the US military swoop in at the 11th hour and “save the world again”. Maybe some nuance might be required. Or, to put it in words some forum members might understand, “Meybee some udder coontrees better start pull 'dem wait yee-hah!”

But like I said, maybe some nuance is required. That doesn’t diminish what Putin is or what he is all about.

umm…no comment

In realpolitik speak, of course it would if a tangible, measurable benefit was gained.

It can’t really repeat as there aren’t unlimited pockets of ethnic Russians sympathetic to Russia.

Part of the reason you’re not seeing this repeat in the Baltic States is that people living there have a higher standard of living than in Russia, and they know that.

Those countries haven’t enacted the same ethnic-limiting policies as they had in the Ukraine, and the people overall are better integrated.

Equally, Russia is running out of excuses for poor economic performance. You’ll likely see shake ups in leadership before then.

We have excellent surveillance here in the states Edward Snowden pointed that out if Alaska does anything more than mop floors in the defense industry he will be out of a job within a few weeks. I can’t believe a neoliberal like him would align with illiberal democracy and wars of aggression took him as a libertarian.

Can’t tell if outright insincere or Rose Colored Glasses glued to eyes.

That article isn’t really painting a different picture, is there a different one?

The coverage I follow during the last crisis was provided by Vice, and what they point out is that the Russian separatists view the Ukrainian government as the fascists.

Both for the limiting of Russian education, and because, yeah, you could find swastikas among the Ukrainian militias.

Some of whom actually are fascists.

They’re taking over all of Ukrain bombs are going off the FAR WEST Ukraine on the border with Poland this isn’t about protecting Russian Speakers this is a territory grab I’m surprised it happened so fast.

That’s a very sanitised way of saying what I think you’re saying. That won’t end up as…clean as the the sentence you presented. I also don’t think it’s a safe bet. Maybe we’ll see the same revolving clown car that we all saw during the Trump Administration occur in Russia, but I seriously doubt we’ll see a significant shake up in leadership.

Putin has an Iron Grip, Michael McFall former ambassador says leadership changes upon death. The point is this isn’t just Donbass this is right on Poland’s border. How much shrapnel should Poland have to tolerate before nato gets involved and an American defending this is just beyond words. I swear these cult members would slit their own throats to protect their Queen Bee Trump. It’s not a political party it’s a cult.

Heres a dead child wrapped in his bike 65 miles out of Donbass. Putin is just protecting Russian speakers right Alaska. https://twitter.com/nicklaus_monroy/status/1496734261721935874?s=20&t=jN1CXOx7zV1dyQU97fUtSw

I’m not seeing much on Poland, looks like the very invasion plan I posted about a month ago

Yeah, I’m calling it, you mistook Western attacks for Western Ukraine. Russia had no means of staging there, certainly not within an hour. “Western” meant in the direction of Kiev, which sits in the middle of the country.

Agree, although if it were up to me, I’d be shipping them SAMs and Tows by the boatload.

Since when have economic ****ups shook up leadership in an effective dictatorship?

Putin will not allow the Ukraine to be neutral. Have you not listened to his speeches? His goal is to re-construct the Soviet Union and re-new the cold war with China as an ally. It’s a replay of World War II, only this time it’s Russia and China instead of Germany and Japan.

Egypt, Turkey, Tunisia?

The CCP is paranoid they’re next, and Xi may just have a revolt within the party upsetting his “3rd term” chances because of it.