Why Trump Suffered a Stunning Iowa Upset


Here’s why Donald Trump suffered a stunning Iowa upset when the polls suggested he’d winDespite the record voter turnout that was supposed to catapult Donald Trump to victory in Iowa, the notoriously self-confident businessman was forced to modestly concede defeat to Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas in a notable Monday-night caucuses upset that kicked off voting in the Republican presidential race. Though Trump has bragged for months about his lead in public-opinion surveys, there were no mentions of those Iowa numbers Monday night.
And for good reason: In key demographic areas in which Trump needed to expand his lead, he lost big to Cruz and even trailed a surprisingly strong Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida.
Here’s how Trump’s loss played out, according to NBC’s exit polls.
As predicted, Trump performed best among voters with a high-school education or lower. But those voters represented only 16% of the electorate on Monday. Voters who had any education beyond high school — 84% of the electorate — mostly broke for Rubio and Cruz over Trump.
Trump’s decision to skip last week’s Fox News debate, as well as his reportedly less strong campaign organization, also appeared to work against him.
Voters who made up their minds in the past week — almost half of the electorate — broke for Rubio and Cruz over Trump, though Trump maintained a lead with voters who made their decision earlier.
There was also a notable age gap.
Though Trump has been popular with younger Republican voters nationally, he lost by a significant margin among voters below the age of 49, who accounted for 32% of the Republican turnout Monday. He also fell several points short of Cruz among voters 50 and older.
Voters were also pondering Trump’s viability in the general election. Among the 20% of voters who chose a candidate based they thought could “win in November,” Rubio was the top pick by 20 points.
Finally, ideology and religion also may have worked against Trump.
The mogul performed best among self-identified moderate Republican voters, a vastly smaller share of caucusgoers than those who referred to themselves as conservative.
Of the 40% of voters who considered themselves very conservative, Cruz captured 44% of the vote, compared with Trump’s 21%. Rubio won among the 45% of voters who considered themselves somewhat conservative, netting 29% of that portion of the vote to Trump’s 24%…



I didn’t find it so stunning. Everyone knows that Iowa is an odd duck. Now, if he loses the nomination overall, that will be stunning to me.


No big suprise. Cruz spent two years building an get-out-the-vote organization throughout Iowa.


Trump learns and adapts. The next few elections will be interesting.


So, 84% of the electorate votes for either Cruz or Rubio, and Trump only loses by 4%?
And, what a State!!! In Farming country, 84% of the electorate went beyond High School? Are you kidding me?
Wow. Amazing that Trump beat Christie, then.
Look folks, it was obvious that Trump wasn’t going to win in Iowa. New Hampshire, South Carolina, etc., may be different.
We knew Trump would not do well with evangelicals, and so it was. But those numbers do not add up.


I am not surprise simply because it is not surprising. Trump, in my mind, will only surprise me if he gets the nomination. He is a joke and like all jokes to me, forgetful.


First read, I quit reading after the first sentence, figuring the rest would be just as full of hyperbole as it started out.
Your post prompted a reread. For starters, political analysts are bobble heads. Now I read that they can somehow KNOW the education level of everyone who votes???

Short story, it’s no “stunning upset” that Trump came in second to Cruz. To try to portray it as such is just utter silliness, and I’m getting tired of it.


[quote=“Seravee, post:6, topic:48206”]
I am not surprise simply because it is not surprising. Trump, in my mind, will only surprise me if he gets the nomination. He is a joke and like all jokes to me, forgetful.
[/quote]I couldn’t agree more. That is why I formed the Facebook group “Liberal Democrats for Cruz.”


I just love when I see statistics that tell me so many white people voted one way or black people and their education levels and so on./sarcasm


>> https://www.facebook.com/Democratsfortrump/



I guess the anti Trumpers would rather have another Washington Insider than a man with a proven record of success. Well, that is their choice, but I see Cruz doing the same underhanded political moves, as Dems and Pubs on the inside.
I hope Trump does prevail, or we’ll have another 8 years of liberalism on display.
Cruz will continue down the Republican’t Road.
Rubio will legitimize 10s of millions of illegals.
And they call us Trump supporters uneducated. Amazing.


The American voter are their own worst enemy. Complain complain complain about politicians, then when a non-politician shows up they want to lynch him.


Yep. And they call us stupid.
It never ceases to amaze me how many people choose to trust the Republican’ts. Heck, they lie right to your face. Claim things cannot be done, and when someone comes up with a plan that might work, they immediately begin to marginalize that, and the people who assert the plan. THEN, on top of it all, they back people who have been caught lying, while calling Trump a joke.
Looks like the joke, might be on them.



Put on your big boy shorts its election time. Goodness, ya’ll are starting to sound like the Romulans from last election.


When all of the anti-Trump “coservatives” go to the polls I wish that they would at least wear their “Lie to me.” t-shirts.


Hey, in the end, I’m not the one threatening to take my ball home if my guy is not nominated. I’ll be happy with ANY of the candidates, and I WILL vote for the REPUBLICAN nominee in 2016. I dare say there are many here who will not.

I think they all have great stuff to offer, and any of them is George Washington compared to Hillary.


I see you have mind reading powers. I have already stated that if Trump gets the nod then I will vote for him. Me thinking he is a fool does not mean I do not agree with him.


LOL. Okay, I can accept that.


[quote=“TerryOfromCA, post:18, topic:48206”]
LOL. Okay, I can accept that.
[/quote]As a fellow Democrat, we disagree on choice of candidates. Join Liberal Democrats for Ted Cruz


I’m not a Democrat. God forbid!